As a quick intro to the 2024 reprinting of this 2023 piece...Week 1 was the worst week of FF results I had experienced in my career. We would go on to have a win streak for the next 10+ weeks unlike anything I'd seen in my career. Week 1 is a fickle beast, remember that...win or lose.
Before the 2024 Week 1 Exec Report hits tonight...here's what was being discussed a year ago.
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This is just the Intro...the rest of the length Monday report will be out between 5-8pmET -- it's a huge report with a lot of moving parts, it takes time...it will be out as fast as makes sense/it can.
Intro:
This was a rough week...rough week for FF results. But also a rough week for football in general. FF scoring was way down for all teams/leagues/platforms across the globe...for reasons we’ll spend all day/week speculating on and that I’ll be dissecting from the tape to try and figure out. From my vantage point, I’m not sure that I’ve seen a worse collection of football play in a week, much less Week 1, in my entire career.
Before I get into my theories on Week 1, as an overview of the moment:
I know there’s two kinds of people reading this, and one who is not...
1) The people who won all/most of their Week 1 FF games, but think they got lucky because ____ thing happened, so they’re not fully enjoying the win -- and they’re worried that things don’t look good ahead. But they are relatively content with a Week 1 win...and a lot of this intro will make little sense because ‘winners’ are happy.
2) The people who lost their Week 1 game/s, scored very low, and are questioning why they even play Fantasy Football...or why they would subscribe to a place like FFM.
#2 people then split into two parts...
a) the people who have been at this a while and realize Week 1 sucked, it’s a bad day/result and by Tuesday morning they will be ‘back to work’ planning waivers and Week 2 starting lineups and possible trades...and worried (0-2) is coming a week from now, but they’re keeping their wits about them.
b) the people who are newer, but some veterans, who just want to read everything here and scoff and find more misery. They want a pound of flesh.
This is a ‘funny’ (not so funny) business to be in. Week-to-week, in-season, I find/know that most people playing this game are miserable. Miserable that they lost...or miserable that they won, but it was deemed a ‘lucky win’...a win ONLY because ___ wild thing happened. Losses are never deemed just ‘unlucky’ because ___ wild thing happened...losses are seen as deserved and earned and owners seek something to punish after the loss. Ten+ years doing this, nearly 15 years now...and it never gets any better...it only gets worse with the more leagues and DFS and betting, etc.
Those not reading this: People who lost and have sought instant retribution by saying: I’ll never listen to that guy (that RC) again. What was I thinking? And they move on to wherever they go. It’s a bad business model -- I get no credit, no additional business when things go right/well in a week or over time...but I definitely get lost-business when a bad week/s hit...especially Week 1, the first card revealed of the big poker game.
It’s a wonderful existence...this FF business.
This is not my first rodeo, as the cow-folks say. I have the same range of emotions too. I was pissed at the underwhelming TNF start for most FF-things. I was shaking my head by 3pmET Sunday at the events taking place on my TV screens. I ‘was’ Brian Daboll at 10pmET+ last night...down 40 to nothing and rain pouring down on my head, as my previously packed home stadium was half-empty, and the half-full part was hurling insults literally...or just hurling them with the ‘looks on their faces’...and I couldn’t do a thing about the mass murder of my team taking place on national television...all he could do was to watch it happen, to watch another fumble, sack, etc. Not one thing went right for Coach Daboll...and that’s the way most FF weeks feel, even the good ones...oddly. It’s just the way we are wired as FF players...bettors...humans, I guess.
If Sunday night wasn’t bad enough to be Brian Daboll...the rest of this week won’t be a picnic for him either. I am Spartacus Daboll. Many of us are Daboll in some way this week.
The question for the actual Brian Daboll this day, and for us figurative Daboll’s is: What do we do now? Eight months of preparation...free agency, trades, a draft, OTAs, training camp, preseason games (or mock drafts, mass reading and study all offseason, real redrafts all summer for the FF player)...the pageantry of hosting your bitter rival Week 1 on National television coming off a season where you shocked the world and made the playoffs and actually won a playoff game, so expectations were high...and you watched the most miserable game that I think I’ve ever seen from one team (NYG Week 1)...and in a like manner, we watched many miserable FF scoring results this week.
What do you do now/today?
Half of us are gonna panic and create a calamity of overreactions. I know this. And the other half of us are gonna be mad Monday-Tuesday, then cool off and get back to FF work for Week 2.
You ‘know’ the Giants aren’t going (0-17) and neither are the Bengals going (0-17), nor the Chiefs. You know this...but you think your FF team is going to go 0-fer and you are now wasting time thinking back to your redraft and all things you would do differently. I’m sure you were gonna draft Kyren Williams and Kendrick Bourne in a parallel universe). You don’t afford your own fake random FF team the same grace as the Giants, Bengals, et. al.
For the people who are willing to listen, I have a two-part message of hope:
1) You aren’t going 0-and-whatever. You will win a game at some point. You might be (0-2) next week, but you will win, and your season is not even close to being over after Week 2. There’s a long road ahead that will get better the more cards we all see revealed.
That’s the simple message, one you might discard easily. But...
2) Whether you’re (0-1) or (1-0), this bizarre Week 1 may provide one of the greatest windows of opportunity we have seen in a very long time all this week, especially the next 48 hours. Let me explain...
You think you’re miserable? You might be, but I KNOW about 33%+ of your league mates are too...and maybe more miserable. I’ve not seen more bizarre FF outputs/results in a week in my career...and certainly the worst Week 1 performances I’ve seen. The lowest scoring FF results/teams/leagues for a week potentially in the history of FFM tracking for the past decade (and maybe beyond).
The down player/team scoring did not (if it did) happen to you exclusively -- it happened globally, but especially painful for those who lost. Winning with crap scores doesn’t induce panic levels like losing with crap scores does, and because it is Week 1 -- it feels 10x worse...feel like this is the way this season is going to go for the entire way.
After this Week 1...you’re either the panicked...or the one taking advantage of the panicked. You’re either the hunted...or the hunter. My job is to snap you out of a bad mindset and switch you off the misery today (if/where you lost Week 1) and change you into the hunter...not the hunted.
You know what your sentiment on the New York Giants going forward is going to be today/this week, when you start to think about it? You’ll think: I’ll bet the Giants bounce back from a total embarrassment, as most NFL teams do the week after they’ve been humiliated, and they’ll take out their revenge on whoever they’re playing. A lot of things are going to do a 180 in Week 2...we know this about the NFL, but we don’t think it of our FF teams/results/outputs. We know/suspect NYG is a decent bet this week for that 180 factor...but we will not think we’re going to win our FF game this week (if we lost Week 1). You gotta get your mind right.
What happened in Week 1, anyway? Let’s travel down that road for a moment...
I think/speculate that the combination of no REAL NFL practices/practicing in August, just glorified two-hand touch, is leading to ever sloppier play in the league, especially out of the gates. I’m not waxing for the olden days...I just have to figure out what’s true and how we can FF/betting profit from it. I would say, without hyperbole, that was the worst collection of football play, watching all the games live Sunday, that I have ever seen occur in one week. Some of that has to be the unrealistic practicing going on in the preseason.
Some of it was the rain -- miserable rain in so many parts of the East and Midwest during games affected outcomes/production on offense. Then there were injuries popping up all over, as expected when these guys aren’t in full game shape.
Add together sloppiness from the preseason being ‘fake’ football...add in misting, miserable rain to some game results and sprinkle in some key injuries to a few teams -- and you get a disaster Week 1 across the league.
Let me show some numbers that might help explain beyond just theory...
I looked at Week 1 of 2022 v. 2023 at overall scoring, and I am using a quick litmus test to show a comparison. I going to show the #10, #12, and #15 scorers at each position Week 1 of 2022 v. 2023...and let me add 2021 in as well.
Displayed as the FF points for the #10, #12, and #15 at the given position...
QB (4pts):
2021 = 24.3, 22.1, 20.5
2022 = 19.8, 19.1, 17.2
2023 = 16.8, 16.0, 15.2
RB (PPR):
2021 = 18.1, 17.3, 16.4
2022 = 20.0, 19.8, 16.5
2023 = 16.7, 14.9, 13.4
WR (PPR):
2021 = 23.8, 23.5, 20.9
2022 = 21.2, 20.2, 18.4
2023 = 19.1, 18.6, 17.7
TE (PPR):
2021 = 11.8, 10.7, 10.5
2022 = 11.6, 10.2, 8.9
2023 = 8.4, 8.1, 7.9
DST:
2021 = 7.0, 6.0, 5.0
2022 = 9.0, 7.0, 6.0
2023 = 10.0, 9.0, 8.0
(makes sense that this would be ‘up’ given all the other ‘downs’)
If you think your team scored poorly and all your players stink and you wish you could redraft again -- you’re not alone. Scoring was way down...and especially among the RBs. We may have witnessed the death of the American Running Back in Fantasy Football in Week 1 of 2023, but we won’t fully realize it for several weeks -- more reason why it was smart to deemphasize them, in general, in redrafts.
My working 2023 redraft theory was -- the QBs are the undervalued assets pre-season and in-season and all the time, so I professed being QB Strong...and had ‘my guys’ done their thing...I would’ve easily won way more than I lost this week. And I might if Josh Allen has a game tonight.
If I take Jalen Hurts and Joe Burrow based teams (most FFM teams are Mahomes-Hurts-Burrow lead) and plug in their normal scoring for a given week, I/we probably win 60%+ of our games in this $#!&show Week 1. Check to see if this includes you? Hurts teams add +10.0 and Burrow +20.0...would you have won with those extra points? And if you faced the Dallas DST, it doesn’t matter...you were cursed by God anyway...but then deduct your opponent’s Dallas DST at -25 and see if you would have won.
Those ‘what if’ calcs are important because you were closer to a win than you think...things aren’t as bad as you might believe.
That was the power of the QB-theory in redraft...when all hell breaks loose, the power QBs can literally win the week. Only Hurts and Burrow flopped this week. Live by the QB sword, die by it.
I suspect we’ll live more than we die this year with Hurts and Burrow.
OK, I need to get to very important work -- crunching all this tape to see what was real and fake from this bizarre week. And I can’t watch/study every game by Tuesday, so I’ll do the best I can before the Tuesday night waivers. But some gems may not be uncovered until mid/later week. I’m just one man...and there’s a lot of tape to comb through.
OK, with that...let’s get to the three players/five things. And note that the scoring of players, especially RBs was so dreadful that there are a ton of top 10-20 RBs from Week 1 who weren’t even drafted, plus we got some injuries to deal with -- there is a bushel of RB performances to dissect. There’s a ton of opportunity this week to find ‘fixes’ but some of this may be that the best course of action is to do nothing on some players...is to do nothing but just sit and wait, be patient.
Example: Isiah Pacheco...you’re mad because he only scored 9.4 PPR points Week 1. He fell 1-yard short of a TD on a TNF play...had he crossed the goal line, he would’ve been a 15.4 PPR scorer for the week instead...and 15.4 PPR pts gets you to the #11 RB in FF right now...an RB1. You were a yard away from having an RB1 Week 1 with Pacheco.
You can choose to be mad that you drafted him, throwing a Week 1 hissy fit...or you can realize you just missed a perfectly fine RB week in this weird Week 1. You’re most likely to email me that ‘your RBs are killing you’ and Pacheco will be one of your RBs. The world never stops spinning...and FF owners are always being killed by their RBs.
Actually, you are...there is a huge problem at the NFL RB position underway. The question is -- hold or panic/fold/change? That’s one of the many things to tackle this week, and I will...all week.
THREE PLAYERS:
*After watching all the games live, I can only catch so much when 4-8-9 games going at once...so, these are my initial reactions/notes from what I saw. Subject to change as I process the tape.
CAR-ATL
-- More of the same, in 2023, for Kyle Pitts (2-44-0/3)...barely used. He will start hitting waiver wires in the next 2-3 weeks. People still believe...holding onto hope, so he won’t go there this week...but soon. What a waste of talent.
-- The most targeted receiver for ATL? Bijan Robinson (10-56-0, 6-27-1/6).
The most carries for ATL? Tyler Allgeier (15-75-2, 3-19-0/3).
This entire offense is about the RBs. Just ask Drake London (0-0-0/1).
Does Allgeier keep up this run...probably for a while. He’ll be in some kind of split with Bijan because all this team wants to do is run. Plenty of opps for both.
-- Bryce Young (20-38 for 146 yards, 1 TD/2 INTs) had the game I would’ve expected from him...and for a rookie ‘him’. It’s going to be a LONG year in Carolina. Eight more losses until my biggest bet of 2023 pays off -- Carolina UNDER for win total.
Actually, Young wasn’t terrible here...considering he’s a rookie, etc.
CIN-CLE
-- I didn’t see anything super-wrong with Joe Burrow (14-31 for 82 yards, 0 TD/0 INT) on the live watch -- just a rainy game and nothing clicked, and the team spiraled. I didn’t see (live) the Browns doing anything radical on defense...just Cincy was about as flat as they could ever be. I assume Burrow didn’t forget how to play football all of a sudden. Last year, Week 1 was a disaster for him as well...if you remember (the 4 pick/7 sack game v. PIT).
-- Honestly, there was not one thing in this game that looked good or made any sense. It was on-and-off rain and wind. It was sloppy play on both sides from the jump, but Cleveland seemed to want it more. There was only one thing that stood out to me -- the Bengals defense is really good. You see the score and wonder how that could be...and that’s logical, but from my live watch, before this game fell down into misery due to the Cincy offense doing nothing -- the Bengals defense, especially the secondary looked very good.
-- All that preseason hubbub on Elijah Moore (3-43-0/7) as some great thing/connection with Deshaun...I didn’t see it here, but it’s early...and the Cincy coverage was really good here.
JAX-IND
-- Anthony Richardson (24-37 for 223 yards, 1 TD/1 INT, 10-40-1) was the one rookie QB who looked halfway decent in their debut. Richardson looked ‘in command’ a lot of the time...or ‘not panicked’. A good start. It wasn’t electric or magical, but for a rookie debut it was pretty ‘high end’, because usually the rookie debuts are shaky at best and disasters at worst. Considering he had no run game...it was pretty good.
-- We had our question on Alec Pierce (1-5-0/3) answered...he faded away as Richardson worked with Michael Pittman (8-97-1/11). Pierce may have his day, but it wasn’t here and doesn’t seem on the horizon.
-- Calvin Ridley (8-101-1/11) did get all the targets from Trevor, seemingly...a continuation from the preseason. Which we figured if that was true then Christian Kirk (1-9-0/3) and Evan Engram (5-49-0/5) would FF-suffer in the background. And they kinda did here. Engram ‘meh’, Kirk a ghost.
All you can do with Kirk is hold and hope.
As flimsy as the Engram output looks...it was a TE1 week.
TB-MIN
-- In the week of ‘the downfall of NFL/FF RBs’, Rachaad White (17-39-0, 2-10-0/2) did his part of the disappointing with mediocre yards and no TDs. He got a good workload. He was sniffing a TD but didn’t get one. I can live with a lot of what I saw, but I was disappointed in his 2-catch tally -- basically, they didn’t have anything special for him as a pass game weapon. His best attribute (pass catcher)...and the team didn’t even try to use it.
This is going to be a long FF season with running backs.
White had the 10th most carries of any RB in Week 1 (pre-MNF).
-- Alexander Mattison (11-34-0, 3-10-1/4) also had a nothing-game with good touches, but he got a TD so he was almost an RB1. It did not look good (visually/tape-wise) with Mattison, as expected. The Vikings are gonna have to do something about this via free agency flier, practice squad grab, or trade. Likely, they’ll do nothing for several weeks.
-- Baker Mayfield (21-34 for 173 yards, 2 TDs/0 INT) was gritty here...but it definitely did not look pretty. This offense is not very good, and Baker is not a serious FF option in a given week. Bad news for Evans-Godwin going forward.
TEN-NO
-- Rashid Shaheed (5-89-1/6, 2-11-0) ended up having a day. A TD catch late to give NO the eventual win. He had a TD catch earlier in the game too, but he was ruled out by a hair as he dove to his knees to catch the score, but his one knee was just out of bounds. He’s well integrated into the offense. He should be an FF-starter consideration next week. Some used him in FFM lineups this week, others had him on the bench to see how it would go -- it went well.
-- The Saints defense looked really good here...3 picks, 3 sacks, no TDs allowed. AND this was their toughest game for the next 5 weeks. This DST is gonna pay off.
-- DeAndre Hopkins (7-65-0/13) looked OK here...not great but not bad. The coverage was so good by the Saints in general, it’s hard to judge him properly from the live look. But he definitely got the majority of targets for Tennessee. Westbrook-Ikhine was next best with 7 targets. Treylon Burks (2-18-0/3) with just three targets...disappointing for his 2022 NFL Draft stock. The Tennessee passing game is not good for FF-related things.
SF-PIT
-- The Steelers were blown out here from the jump. Kenny Pickett (31-46 for 232 yards, 1 TD/2 INT) was under assault early and got rattled...and this was never a game. Pickett looked off early but started to have some moments...but still it never looked right. The confident swashbuckler from the preseason was nowhere to be found here.
It doesn’t get a whole lot easier with Cleveland next week. I want to see what he looks like vs. Cleveland before I would stick a fork in him, but if there’s something hot to consider to replace him with...he’s not untouchable.
I saw plenty of ‘name’ QBs struggle mightily Week 1, so I’m cautious to not get ahead of myself, but this Week 1 was a huge disappointment for Pickett.
-- Brock Purdy (19-29 for 220 yards, 2 TD/0 INT, 3-20-0) showed he’s the better QB than Pickett right now...or a similar talent QB with better surroundings. If you like Purdy better than Pickett, it’s not crazy to go Purdy at this point…not at all. Purdy keeps producing, and Pickett has not…at a high level. I didn’t see anything great with Pickett here, but it may not have been as bad as it appeared either (need to watch the detail on tape). Still, the surroundings or coach isn’t going to change for Pickett. Purdy has talent and a great situation.
-- Diontae Johnson (3-48-0/6) came up grabbing his hamstring after a catch...unknown the severity of his injury.
Calvin Austin (6-37-0/6) came in for Diontae and provided a little spark. He’s someone to consider in deeper roster situations.
Early in this game, Pickett fired a pass downfield to Diontae...who slipped and fell when he went to grab it...and when he fell out, it was an easy pick and the floodgates opened on Pickett from there.
ARI-WSH
-- Of the two QBs here, the one who looked the worst was Sam Howell (19-31 for 202 yards, 1 TD/1 INT)...shockingly. Josh Dobbs (21-30 for 132 yards, 0 TD/0 INT) didn’t look half bad, honestly.
-- If Howell doesn’t have ‘it’, as I’ve thought all along, you gotta considering selling your Washington -related assets ‘high’ if you can. Against a disaster secondary, none of the WSH receivers had an FF-day worthy noting.
-- If Dobbs is passable, at QB, then maybe the Arizona receivers aren’t all totally-totally dead. Zach Ertz (6-21-0/10) did get 10 targets here. The WR with the most = Marquise Brown (3-28-0/5) with half that number. Not good. I’m really not wanting to wade in this pool until Kyler returns.
HOU-BAL
-- C.J. Stroud (28-44 for 242 yards, 0 TD/0 INT, 4-20-0) was shaky in his debut but got more comfortable as he went on. He was close to keeping his team in the game but could never get over the hump and get a TD. It’s just a bad scene in Houston for offense right now.
In a few weeks, they’ll trade/dump their old WRs and bring up the youngsters.
-- The Todd Monken offense was nothing special (as expected)...basically a bunch of quick passes to Zay Flowers (9-78-0/10)...nice for Zay, bad for all the others. Lamar threw for 169 yards and no TDs, but one pick.
-- J.K. Dobbins (8-22-1, 2-15-0/3) is done for the year with an Achilles tear. His career is really fading fast. It will be a Gus Edwards (8-32-0) and Justice Hill (8-9-2) split to start out, as replacements, but knowing John Harbaugh, he’ll bring in an old RB to make it a trio. Melvin Gordon up from the practice squad will probably be the first point of order.
GB-CHI
-- I don’t know how much of the Jordan Love (15-27 for 245 yards, 3 TD/0 INT) nice game was Love’s skills...or the Bears D gaffes. Love didn’t complete a high rate of passes, but he did get three TD passes to his credit. I do know this...he had a lot of time to work with. A nice protection...or terrible pass rush by CHI.
-- I also know this, for whatever we think of Love...he’s a better passer than Justin Fields (24-37 for 216 yards, 1 TD/1 INT). Fields looked awful here. He struggled completing passes against a prevent...short dump passes were a chore. Fields didn’t seem all that interested in running...if he’s not running a lot, then I’m not FF-interested.
-- Roschon Johnson (5-20-1, 6-35-0/7) ended up with nice numbers, but they all came late in garbage-ish time. He didn’t get his first action in the game until after halftime. He did look good, but he seems to be the #3 RB for now...in a timeshare with Hebert-Foreman.
Foreman may fall to #2/Raschon moves up in a few weeks...or both Foreman/Roschon rise and Herbert falls to #3.
LV-DEN
-- Jakobi Meyers (9-81-2/10) looked like Davante Adams (6-66-0/9) in this game. Like if you didn’t know the history, you would assume Meyers is the team’s #1 WR and Adams is a nice running mate #2. Meyers took a huge hit/blow in this game, a penalized one, and he left with a concussion.
Some Week 1 ‘pop players’ are just one-week-wonders, but Meyers looked different. He looked legit working with Davante and Jimmy G. This may be a one-week-wonder, but it was quite the week.
Hunter Renfrow didn’t even see a target.
-- Javonte Williams (13-52-0, 4-5-0/6) looked OK-ish here. Still doesn’t look like his old self. Looks a bit slow and non-explosive still. Samaje Perine (8-41-0, 4-37-0/4) had the better FF scoring day, but neither was great.
-- Russell Wilson (27-34 for 177 yards, 2 TDs/0 INT) looked a little better than last year here, but he was very ‘limited’. He was mostly soft tossing short dump passes to the RBs and anyone else short. The thing was, as the game went on -- he had time to throw, but he wasn’t really stretching the field. He got decent blocking as the game progressed, but he didn’t really do anything with it. I don’t think Russ has any magic left, but let’s see what next week brings. Could be the new offense to blame for some hesitations...or maybe Russ is, I’m gonna say it, ’cooked’.
PHI-NE
-- Well, Kenneth Gainwell (14-54-0, 4-20-0/4) is the current winner of the Eagles starting RB sweepstakes. And I thought he looked pretty bad...trouble for Philly if he’s the lead back...they may be in on a Jonathan Taylor trade now.
The great D’Andre Swift (1-3-0, 1-0-0/2) was so important and wonderful to get in the offseason...and he barely played.
Rashaad Penny was set healthy inactive.
What a mess. I guess it’s Gainwell time for the foreseeable future. And, again, it did not look good. It never has. Maybe he just needs more reps.
-- Mac Jones (35-54 for 316 yards, 3 TDs/1 INT) threw for good numbers, but he was working from behind in deficit crisis mode. He did help get NE back in the game, but with chances to win it late...Jones was halted on his final two drives. He almost pulled it off.
Really, it did not look all that good/promising. Just a lot of volume/throws, and several dump passes to the RBs and anyone else short. A few nice downfield floaters, but I’d deem his night -- not as good as the numbers showed.
-- With that in mind, Kendrick Bourne (6-64-2/11) had a nice game with DeVante Parker out. Not sure this is a new trend for Bourne, but it was a nice Week 1. He’s a good/capable WR...but the moment he has a 3-30-0...everyone is done with him.
MIA-LAC
-- I had Tua Tagovailoa (28-45 for 466 yards, 3 TDs/1 INT) as a DO NOT START this week because of the rough time LAC gave him in 2022, and the way LAC’s D has played the Miami style quick passing game in general. Well, 488 passing yards later...
It’s been that kind of week.
Brandon Staley’s claim to fame is ‘defensive guru’.
This was a defensive disaster.
-- Miami’s D had its own problems as well...giving up 234 rushing yards to LAC. Joshua Kelley (16-91-1, 0-0-0/1) had a game, but I don’t think this is the start of something for Kelley...just they like to spell Ekeler some with Kelley, and Miami was so bad stopping the run they just ran it with both backs.
-- Kudos to Tyreek Hill (11-215-2/15) who single handedly saved many an FFM Fantasy game week. That’s why we got ‘em! He’s virtually unstoppable most weeks...only Tua can really stop him.
LAR-SEA
-- I thought they’d introduce Puka Nacua (10-119-0/15) slowly into the offense, but instead...he’s the new Cooper Kupp. I didn’t see it coming, I don’t think the Rams thought it would hit like this, but Nacua ended up being a copycat Kupp and it worked...and Seattle never adjusted, the same CB kept getting burned so they kept going to it.
I can’t believe it, but this was real. For as long as Kupp is out...they are going to treat Nacua as Kupp, I have to believe. Can he sustain the pace against San Francisco in Week 2? Good question. Could be a fast fall from FF grace against SF and then v. CIN the next two weeks, but I am not taking this lightly from what I saw live.
-- Matt Stafford (24-38 for 334 yards, 0 TD/0 INT) was under no duress at all. It’s like Seattle didn’t even have a defense playing in this game. I’m not sure if this was the Rams O-Line coming together or Seattle is that bad on defense.
-- Once Seattle lost BOTH its starting offensive tackles, this game fell apart (Seattle was winning at the half) -- and those OTs were a big part of why I was with Seattle big in this game. Those two OLs went out and this game fell apart. I’m not sure if Seattle had a 1st-down in the 2nd-half. I just checked...they had one 1st-down.
If Seattle loses one or both those tackles for a while/the season...season over before it begins.
*We’ll talk Kyren and Tutu coming up in the next section...
DAL-NYG
-- I know the Dallas defense is good, but this was ridiculous...
How much of this was luck...how much was Dallas D talent...and how much was NYG’s offense, hard to say because NYG raced right down the field to start and then the blocked FG turned-recovery-TD and it kinda took the game away there and it was all downhill.
The defensive wizardry in this game led to all the stats/outputs being way off...it’s almost not worth noting anything from this game.
-- Darren Waller (3-36-0/5) didn’t look like anything special, and Parris Campbell (1-2-0/4) didn’t either, nor did he have much to work with. But how much of this is Dallas and how much of it is – those guys might suck is still to be determined.
-- I will say...Dak Prescott (13-24 for 143 yards, 0 TDs/0 INTs) was trying to pile on here. He was working throws past the 3rd-quarter, into the 4th for a bit, I believe, before they pulled the starters...and it did not look great. I’m on somewhat of a watch here that there might be some mild issues with Dak still. This game was so unusual it’s hard to make any real judgments. Dak wasn’t bad, he just wasn’t as sharp...but it was raining and that caused issues for QBs in several games, so it may be nothing.
===== FIVE PLAYERS =====
*** FIVE WAIVER PLAYERS TO TRUST***
*Looking at players owned less than 50% on average in leagues across the whole FF-landscape. Your league, obviously, may be different/deeper.
**Adding a school grade to show my interest level (A-F)…and I don’t mean that a D-F grade is ‘bad’/just showing how pressing/important to me, your situation may differ due to injury, etc..
***IF FAAB% mentioned at any time below is based on a 16-20 man roster/12-team league. And it’s hard to predict the right bid % because every league, situation, lineup needs are so different. So, doing the best I can to ‘project’ (i.e. ‘guess’) what they will be based on early chatter.
*Again, note…not a grade on talent…just how important/urgent/great the waiver move is in context.
1a) WR Puka Nacua (Grade = B+/B)
He played the Cooper Kupp role to perfection. I have to re-look at the tape, but he got open and caught the ball over-and-over...and some of it was Seattle’s slot corner (backup because Witherspoon out) covering was a disaster.
You can’t deny those targets/catch count. If Kupp misses more time, then this really pays off. If Kupp is back Week 5...Nacua dries up.
1b) WR Zay Flowers (Grade = B+/B)
Baltimore’s main passing play...a quick pass to Zay and hope he did something with it. A great start, a great honor for a rookie to get this treatment. OBJ was a ghost. Rashod Bateman was mild. Andrews was missing, so we’ll have to see how much he might change the target flow upon return...but Zay is a talent and arguably the #1 WR for them already, but if he gets 3 targets Week 2 (possible), then everyone will panic in the other direction.
3) WR Jakobi Meyers (Grade = B)
I swear, it seems like he grew two inches taller, added 10 pounds of muscle and looks like Davante Adams now. Concussion issue from Week 1...not sure his Week 2 status. Looked very good, but you have to assume he’ll take a backseat to Davante over time...so you can only go so far with this.
But Meyers has that Amon-Ra St. Brown ‘worker’ quality that we need to embrace not dismiss.
4) RB Kenneth Gainwell (Grade = B-)
The main RB for Philly comes with a value, but not that much (ask Miles Sanders)...and, I thought Gainwell looked pretty flimsy here. I don’t know if Philly can hang with this for long...or maybe Gainwell rises up as he goes.
5) RB Justice Hill (Grade = C+)
J.K. Dobbins gone, so that leaves a Gus/Justice split...and Justice is the more talented guy for FF, but Harbaugh always splits the touches just when you think you got things figured out...AND he’ll elevate Melvin Gordon, and possibly ice out Hill next week...you never know with Harbaugh. Be careful.
6) WR Rashid Shaheed (Grade = C+)
Still under 50% owned nationally, but that 50% owned is probably most all FFMers. Solid week. Very integrated in this offense, BUT there are many mouths to feed there, so there will be up-and-down weeks. If you weren’t in already.
7) WR Tutu Atwell, LAR (Grade C-)
The Rams were working him pretty well Week 1...I was shocked. Got left open in coverage for a big play/about half his 100+ yards on it. I don’t know how much of this was Atwell rising...or Seattle just totally unable to cover anyone that Tariq Woolen wasn’t covering.
8) RB Zack Moss (Grade = D/D-)
Could be the starting RB for the Colts next week, but between a lack of talent (he has) and a bad Colts run game...does it really matter? However, it’s a warm body to consider if desperate.
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***FIVE WAIVER PLAYERS TO DISTRUST***
1) TE Adam Trautman, DEN
A team high 5 catches this week and Greg Dulcich has a hamstring issue, so more snaps for Trautman coming. However, he just looks so slow and stiff. I don’t think there’s FF gold here.
2) QB Baker Mayfield, TB
Did throw two TD passes...but this offense, and Baker as a passer, did not look good/comfortable. It was very ‘edge of your seat’ with a couple clutch throws by Baker. I’m just not seeing a rise happening here.
3) QB Mac Jones, NE
I wasn’t overwhelmed with what I saw here against Philly. A lot of dump passes and few ‘lucky’ throws, and a few decent ones. Mac is serviceable in an emergency and on a good matchup but the 300+ yards and 3 TDs was likely to be ‘blamed’ on a very quick hole NE found themselves in this game, and they threw a ton to try and get back into it.
4) QB Jordan Love, GB
Love had some moments, as always, where he looks pretty good...but also some missed opportunities, some bad misfires...15-of-27 passing 55.6% Comp. Pct. but in limited throws he got 3 TDs, so it’s a nice FF week, but one of the TDs was a little RB dump off and Aaron Jones did the rest. Love is another QB whose output will flow with the opposition defense/matchup and how well they can keep him protected -- and the O-Line was really good here.
Neither Mac or Jordan seem on their way to another level...just solid games with a blip TD event. They aren’t zeros but they are not QB1s in progress.
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*I DON’T KNOW HOW TO CLASSIFY AS TRUST OR DON’T TRUST ON WAIVERS*
RB Roschon Johnson, CHI
The #8 PPR RB on the week, but he didn’t see touches until the 2nd-half...in a game getting away from the Bears quickly, and then most of his touches came when the game was out of hand. So, I want to say he’s a ‘don’t trust’ because he is still a #3 RB on a bad/RBBC offense.
However, he is clearly the best RB they have (with Foreman) and it’s only a matter of time before he is the main guy...but still in a split.
RB Kyren Williams, LAR
Williams is going to get touches and be serviceable, but he’s not a two TD a game guy...or a one TD a game guy. He’s a co-RB with Cam Akers...he’s a random event RB. He’s as useful as LAR gives him snaps and targets.
Kyren played a ton of snaps late as the Rams tried to run the clock out...and as Cam Akers was ineffective running the ball. Kyren was working better and got into two TD situations...he almost had 3 scores.
Kyren is serviceable. He might get a little run with Akers struggling but I don’t think he’s an RB savior...but for the desperate he could be a live body. On talent, I’m not overly impressed, never have been...but if you think he gets a ton of work ahead -- that trumps talent. I just don’t know if he’s FF sustainable.
Watching just his touches back from this game -- a lot of little chippy work...handoffs and run straight for as far as there was a hole. He looked quicker than he did last year, more confident. He’s just not a real, sustainable RB...but he might have to be for a Rams team looking for a run game. Akers really died here, and Kyren took them home -- but the Seattle D had started to just give up late/were worn down.
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***FIVE BUY LOW PLAYERS***
*NOT ‘Buy at any price’…it’s Buy LOW. Try to find a deal. If none to be had, walk away. It’s also NOT…go immediately ask the owner ‘What do you want for ____’, don’t telegraph your desires.*
*THE KEY with pursuing any of these players this week...is IF the current owner lost their game with this player. Owners who won Week 1 are fat-dumb-happy/hard to deal with than Week 1 losers who think the sky has fallen and they can’t get up, and they must change/fix everything right now and they must punish underperformers in some way.
1) WR Ja’Marr Chase, CIN
People are not apt to panic on Ja’Marr as they will with all the other names on this list, but the door got a little opened here...depending upon if the Chase owner lost miserably this week. It’s not crazy to try?
Lots of Bengals on here/this section -- hey, it was the most miserable offense (outside of NYG) of the week. If their current owners lost miserably as well...then you might catch them at the right time of panic.
Chase is still a high valuation player, so it’s not going to be a ‘steal’ -- just if you ever wanted in...this is a good week to at least try.
2) RB Joe Mixon, CIN
People were already suspicious of Mixon going into 2023, but this bad Cincy Week 1 has them reeling on all things Cincy.
There are rare few things at RB where there’s one guy getting everything with no real depth chart pressure -- Mixon is one of them...and he looked really good in the game, but it got out of hand and they had backups in late.
You could do worse than the main RB on a top NFL offense...now on sale.
If you can slide into Mixon in exchange for like an RB2/WR2 equivalent...do it. He’s gonna be an RB1 this year (assuming Cincy offense comes back to life). I’m very bullish here.
3) QB Joe Burrow, CIN
Ditto the rationale of Ja’Marr (above) for Burrow. Only, people are not as high on Burrow as they are Chase, or high on QBs in general. This is easy to trade for if you like it. Plus, the calf could be blamed and spook current owners more.
Burrow is our generation’s Tom Brady...now on sale much cheaper than 48 hours ago.
4) WR George Pickens, PIT
If you think the Steelers will bounce back/grow from here (and I need to watch this tape to dig deeper) then with (if) Diontae out with a hamstring, Pickens is in a good spot going forward...and he looked great, again, in this game. Had a TD catch but...a highlight leaping grab but came down one foot just out of bounds.
People still love the aura of Pickens, so probably not on sale as heavy -- but if you want a crack at him, the price is down. He still has star potential oozing from his every pore.
5) WR Davante Adams, LV
People were down on him coming into the season, and now he had an ‘OK’ Week 1...but Jakobi was better Week 1, and people ignore/underprice Las Vegas things like they do Tampa Bay and Houston, Jacksonville, etc., things. You can take advantage of the panic.
6) RB Isiah Pacheco, KC
Week 1 = He didn’t start for his own team. He didn’t score big for a final tally. Now, he’s just a random nobody. If you can steal, if you don’t have already, he’s a nice addition at a discount -- the #1 RB on a top offense, like a small scale Mixon. They may not run for 100+ yards per game (who is anymore?), but they will get 70+ yards combined with some catches upside – and more importantly...TDs!
7) WR Tee Higgins, CIN
No catches on 8 targets. Talk about a WR going on sale. He might be worth a weak WR2, WR2.5 or two trinket-ish players in exchange for him right now...just because ‘panic’. I’m not saying Tee is definitely elite/must get...but if you can steal him, you got a nice #2 WR on a top offense at a discount.
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***FIVE SELL HIGH PLAYERS***
*NOT ‘Sell at any price’…it’s sell HIGH/sell good. Try to find someone in love with your player or seen as a neat value thrown into a multiplayer deal. If no one respects the player/buys right…then walk away.*
1) TE Kyle Pitts, ATL
Another dud week. He’s toast there, as we’ve screamed all preseason. There’s always a sucker willing to buy low...if you can throw him in to a deal where it is your ____ + Pitts for ____ thing you want.
You’ll want to put him on waivers soon...so might as well use what little value he has, if at all possible.
2) RB A.J. Dillon, GB
Another awful performance from a guy I’m TOTALLY done with. The Aaron Jones owner is usually willing to pay up. His name, like Pitts, carries some value still...but it’s draining away fast.
3) RB Kyren Williams, LAR
If you grabbed him in some deep roster league...now is the time. Two short rushing TDs (almost three). It was circumstantial. He may be their best RB, but he’s just average/OK as a talent at best and is a satellite RB at his core not a three-down legit RB. He may be white-hot value this week and your best ROI could be to sell him hot then worry that he has some weak Week 2 and it all dissipates.
4) WR Mike Evans, TB
This offense/QB play looks shaky as can be and Evans still doesn’t look like he’s totally comfortable with things...and he dropped one easy pass his way. He’s not dead, and he will be a top target, but the career fade might be settling in...and if you can sell him hot (not sure you can), you might want to explore it.
5) RB Tyler Allgeier, ATL
He’s really good. He’s gonna get touches. Just noting that if you need to sell something hot for some super-buy-low item...his value may be over its skis right now. Bijan is always going to be some kind of pressure. The Falcons offense is some pressure on his output in matchups. I love the guy but if his value is smoking, and there’s something great to flip into -- it’s not crazy to consider. Just ‘holding’ on him is fine too.
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***FIVE DEEP SLEEPER WAIVER PICKUPS***
*Total flier/lowly owned or not-owned players
1) WR Tank Dell, HOU
Houston is going to keep losing and they will flip to dumping their old WRs and move into their young WRs to use this season to grow C.J. Stroud with them -- and Dell is the top guy for the youngsters. He is really showing well every time I see him get in the game from the preseason to here. He just has that ’swagger’/confidence in his play that most of the rookie WRs don’t have right away (they may get it in a year or two).
2) WR Josh Reynolds, DET
The #2 WR for a solid passing game offense. A guy connected to his QB for years. And any fear that Jameson Williams will bump him off...not likely happening. Not likely to be a sustainable star, but could be sustainably good...the Kendrick Bourne alternative, a #2 WR with talent that’s just with a better offense.
3) WR Calvin Austin, PIT
If Diontae Johnson misses some time with a hamstring, then Calvin Austin could be a huge winner...and he’s a playmaker/gamebreaker. It may be a fortunate twist of fate for the Steelers/Pickett.
4) TE Zach Ertz, ARI
Got back from his ACL and played Week 1 and looked pretty good. Was the top target for his QB. I’m mentioning him here for the potential he’s traded to ___ team/contender in the next 3 weeks.
5) WR Rashee Rice, KC
The only WR for KC who looked like he had a connection with Mahomes, but it wasn’t great...it was just something versus the nothing of the other WR relationships in KC Week 1. When Kelce comes back, we’ll all be looking for a WR winner to go-with...it may be Skyy Moore...it may be Rashee...it may be ‘none’ and they all rotate to WR3/4 status.
6) QB Will Levis, TEN
Ryan Tannehill’s day was rough...some of that is a Saints defense issue, but if the Titans lose a bunch over the next 2-3-4 weeks...Mike Vrabel may pull the plug, and I think he’ll want to go with Will Levis over Malik Willis. Now, Levis isn’t ready for any great FF production...but he’s talented and might get an opportunity for those desperate for a live body at QB for SuperFlex, etc.
7) RB Boston Scott, PHI
If Philly has no faith in Rashaad Penny or D’Andre Swift, I know they have some faith in Boston Scott. If Kenneth Gainwell struggles at all, you might see Scott start to get some work sprinkled in and then if he hits and gets a hot hand, who knows. This a DEEP sleeper reach scenario. They’ll probably give Swift or Penny a chance first.
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-- FIVE…IT’S OK TO QUIT THEM PLAYERS (for REDRAFT) --
1) WR Chase Claypool, CHI
58 snaps. 2 targets. No catches. Justin Fields is awful at passing.
I’m done with knucklehead WRs.
2) WR Van Jefferson, LAR
Whether it was Van J. or (who I thought would get some time) Ben Skowronek...the Kupp hopefuls were Puka and Tutu. I never would have imagined. It was definitely not Van Jefferson.
3) WR Kadarius Toney, KC
After that Week 1, I don't know how he’s going to bounce back into anything any of us are going to trust...even if he scores a TD Week 2. He’s stuck in a 15-20 snap role. Redraft can just move on, if needed/desired. Dynasty...if I have him anywhere, on deeper rosters, I’m looking for a good game as an exit ramp moment to trade...but I won’t wait long.
4) WR Alec Pierce, IND
Obviously not the one connected with Richardson among the WR group. Pittman killed it. Pierce was a ghost. Could flip Week 2, but there’s too many other things to work with than try and guess Richardson target weeks/flows with the guy (Pierce) who ‘lost’ on it Week 1.
5) RB D’Andre Swift, PHI
19 snaps...1 carry, two targets Week 1. Yep, the #2 RB taken in the 2020 NFL Draft. First RB taken? Clyde Edwards-Helaire. Great draft.
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***STREAMING DSTs OFF WAIVER(?) OPTIONS***--
1) Lions-DST
The best schedule ahead of the potential available...
Week 2 = v. SEA is now a good matchup if Seattle’s two O-Tackles are out.
Week 3 = v. ATL
Week 4 = at GB
Week 5 = CAR
Week 6 = at TB
Week 7 = at BAL
Week 8 = v. LV
Week 9 = BYE
2) Giants-DST
Just for Week 2 at ARI. Week 3 is at SF.
3) Bucs-DST
Just for Week 2 v. CHI. Week 3 is v. PHI.
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-- Sleeper/lesser-name IDPs whose box scores or live watch caught my attention --
1) LB Dennis Gardeck, ARI
MY MAN!!! 4 tackles, 2.0 sacks, 3 QB hits, 1 FF in his 2023 starting moment for the new regime!
2) DE Carl Granderson, NO
His last 5 ‘starts’, classified starts (4 in 2022, and this Week 1), Granderson has 5.5 sacks in those 5 starts ...three games with 1.5 sacks each. He had 4 QB hits in this game.
3) SAF Alohi Gilman, LAC
In his last 8 starts over the past 3 seasons, Gilham has averaged = 8.6 tackles per game. A career high 11 tackles Week 1.
4) SEA Julian Love, SEA
9 tackles Week 1 for SEA’s new starting SAF. In his last 11 regular season games, Love is averaging 8.4 tackles per game.
5) LB Jack Gibbens, TEN
Another 8 tackle game for the very quiet ILB leader for TEN. A Vrabel fave.
6) LB Drake Jackson, SF
3 tackles...3 sacks...2 TFLs. Nice 2023 start for the 2nd-year player.
7) LB Ivan Pace, MIN
Played 68% of the snaps and made 8 tackles with a QB hit. The star of preseason, among MIN rookies...his time may be now already.
Supposed starter Brian Asamoah played only 2 snaps. Not sure what happened to him yet.
8) SAF Cam Bynum, MIN
A solid 2022 season and starts out 2023 with a 10-tackle game. The thing about him is...I noted him a couple times during the live watch for making nice/sure tackles (on Rachaad White).
9) DB Elijah Molden, TEN
I have always liked this player, but he keeps getting nagging injuries to hold him out of play. 75% of the snaps played here and had 8 tackles.
10) LB Christian Elliss, PHI
May be forced to start a week or more if Nakobe Dean is out (he got hurt Week 1). Flashed some in the preseason. 4 tackles in 42% of the snaps played Week 1 filling in for Dean who went out.
Outro for Week 1:
This is what watching NFL Week 1 Sunday felt like...an appropriate capturing of the sentiment of bad football play and poor FF scoring...and how much we love it and are stuck loving it for the next few months! Key word of the Week 1 of NFL/FF football: Misery
https://youtu.be/tURhk-5mDpE?si=1-fqv4qdryF6i9KO
Onto Week 2.
