The 2023 season is not finished until I book my nearly 5,000 word commentary on the event...from a Dynasty/Fantasy standpoint and from a critic of the commercials and halftime show standpoint. Let's end the season in style...
Game Overview...
Well, going into this game...I was not excited about watching this matchup/game. I don’t like the Super Bowl for a variety of nitpicky reasons...mostly because it’s so unnatural from the two weeks between their last games played, all the excessive media coverage, all the casual fans who know nothing weighing in on ‘the big game’...and every ad email that I get and every TV advertisement all week pitching something to do with ‘the big game’ because the NFL is so uptight about anyone using the word Super Bowl, to the long halftime spectacle...I just don’t love this event, typically – but I gotta say this was a fun game to watch, an overtime event, an either-team-could-win-it game. Congrats to the NFL for King Midas-ing everything they do...even if by pure luck...they can do no wrong. A great way to end the 2023 NFL season, officially.
Are the Chiefs now a Dynasty? Maybe. It doesn’t fully feel like it to me, but three Super Bowls wins the past 5 seasons...four Super Bowl appearances in the past 5 seasons -- that’s pretty damn amazing in this era. However, it feels like the three Super Bowls they won...they coulda/shoulda lost all/some of them – but credit them for winning all of them.
Arguing about whether the Chiefs are a Dynasty...I’ll leave that to the ESPN hot air talk shows to waste your time with. There’s no Fantasy Football or betting profits to be made for any of us in NFL Dynasty debates...so, let the Steve A. Smith types fill time yelling about it. I got scouting for the 2024 season to get to. I’m going to write about my player/game notes in this report and touching on any Fantasy/Dynasty impacts to their FF valuation going forward from here.
This game outcome could’ve gone either way. It’s the proverbial ‘shame anyone had to lose it’ game. I’m not going to debate the finer points of this contest and how it was won/lost. I mean...a blocked extra point...a punt that went off a 49ers’ ankle to swing the game...so many small moments, it’s useless to try and pinpoint and over-discuss how and why the Chiefs won/49ers lost. Let’s leave it at -- it was just a fun/great game to watch. Two very good teams fought each other to the last second. One of them won it in the end. I collected a small bet amount on KC moneyline to win...but that profit was gobbled up on other prop bets (we’ll get to that). Now, onto half player talk/half commercials critiques and discussing the halftime show in this multi-thousand-word extravaganza report to wrap the season.
Players/Commercials Notes...
-- Let’s start out light...
Before the game kicked off, we got the FanDuel Gronk ‘Kick of Destiny’ thing... Could there be anything less I could care about than watching Gronk in a child’s generic Halloween costume football uniform trying to kick a chip shot field goal? This is supposed to bring in customers for FanDuel?
Well, maybe it is genius... If you’re FanDuel you want a bunch of dopes betting football on your App...and the oncoming, new era king of the football dopes is Gronk, so I guess they are pinpoint firing upon their desired demo.
Of all the ex-players hitting the football analysis/commentary scene...Gronk is the least interesting or informing. I mean, we do need to flush the entirety of the old guard out of CBS coverage. I know Phil Simms and Bill Cowher are big rating draws and great eye-candy for the female demo...but let’s get more J.J. Watt and Kelce brothers and Richard Sherman and Ryan Fitzpatrick...basically let’s get all of Amazon’s coverage crew except tired and boring and useless Tony Gonzalez and sprinkle them around into things with these other recently retired, media savvy ex-players hitting the market.
Gronk feels like the new era’s Terry Bradshaw...speaking of things that are played out.
-- This was a battle of Patrick Mahomes (34-46 for 333 yards, 2 TDs/1 INT, 9-66-0) vs. Brock Purdy (23-38 for 255 yards, 1 TD/0 INTs, 3-12-0) as much as it was Chiefs v. 49ers.
Mahomes was clutch, so no shock there. But you have to give respect to Brock Purdy (23-38 for 255 yards, 1 TD/0 INT) as well...when many wondered if he’d stumble/be overwhelmed in such a moment -- he wasn’t.
Purdy carried the 49ers here (the entire season), as much as Mahomes carried the Chiefs here. The Chiefs had the best defense in the league, or one of, down the stretch of the season...considering that, Purdy played a pretty good game in a massive spot.
Still, Purdy/SF lost...so no extra momentum for him for Dynasty/Fantasy going into the offseason. People have been skeptical/negative on him all along, and not winning the Super Bowl allows them to still think it...despite the fact that Purdy beat Mahomes in FF raw scoring and in per game in the 2023 season. Purdy had more passing yards (97 more), more TDs (31-27), and less INTs (11 to 14) than Mahomes through Week 17 (we ignore Wk18 because it is an outlier/not normal...but neither played in Wk18 anyway).
I’m not saying Mahomes isn’t better, he is. I am saying Purdy deserves a lot more respect...a case I made all 2023...and 2022...and acquired him for peanuts both years, in Dynasty and Redraft...and I hope the masses still underrate him in 2024. They will. Draft round/number + number of commercials = who the fans and ESPN-types think are the best QBs. So, Purdy doesn’t really exist for most of the mainstream when they think about top 10 QBs in the NFL...or in FF. And I hope it stays that way for my football profiteering.
-- I feel like Reese’s is trying too hard with their product. They announced a new Reese’s with a layer of caramel is going to be released now. I mean...I appreciate the effort, but every time Reese’s or M&Ms tries to do something outside their normal box...rare few people care or are overwhelmed by it. I still grab the yellow package of M&Ms every time they’re needed. I don’t need giant sized Reese’s...or Reese’s in egg form...or for Oreos to be double stuffed. The main bread & butter versions of these products have never been a disappointment...it’s rare that one product in one size could have such lasting power.
When have you ever been disappointed with a regular Oreo or normal sized Reese’s cup or Plain or Peanut M&Ms? Reese’s is just trying to get a cash grab off a new product from suckers.
...I’m not saying I won’t be one of those suckers tomorrow at the grocery store if I see them on sale. My Reese’s Caramel experience will be critiqued in an upcoming video show or report. Bet that will really bring on the clicks to the FFM website! It’s quite the tease...as they say in ‘the biz’.
-- My least favorite TV analyst is Tony Romo, so I was already sour about this game when I realized he had the call. I go back and forth on who is worse – Romo or Cris Collinsworth. Let’s just call it a tie. Wait...Troy Aikman is also a disaster as he’s ‘always liked’ whatever player just gained a yard in the game he’s calling. It’s a three-headed monster of awfulness.
Early in the game, Romo said something to the effect of: ‘Everybody thinks Christian McCaffrey is just a scatback, but he’s so much more.’ Really? Is that what you think as you play golf all day and barely put in the time at your analyst job?
Who thinks CMC (22-80-0, 8-80-1/8) is just a scatback? Knowledgeable fans know that’s stupid and none of us thinks that...and casual fans don’t know what a scatback is, nor do they think about Christian McCaffrey in their daily routines. Who was this commentary for? I’ll bet Tony felt good how he had this critical info the rest of us didn’t have.
Soon after the CMC scatback mic drop, Romo assured us Brock Purdy is good...implying we’re all too dumb to realize that too...but Tony knows...you can’t fool him. Great scouting, Tony...thanks for bringing this Purdy kid to our attention. I’ll have to check him out. Thanks for the hot tip.
Tony Romo is arguably the worst TV analyst, but there is for sure one who is worse – Tony Romo calling a game involving the Chiefs.
-- I thought the 49ers early energy and execution was much higher and more focused than the Chiefs, and thus I felt San Fran was going to win this game going away halfway into the 1st-quarter...and especially felt that way when they went up 10-0 in the 2nd-quarter. But the 49ers blew so many early chances to put this game away via turnover or penalties...the Chiefs were able to absorb the 49ers best, early punches and the 49ers started punching themselves out of gas. Then when Dre Greenlaw went down (and out) – the game was gonna change.
Travis Kelce was a ghost early on...but he was gonna roar back to relevance in the 2nd-half...thanks, in part, to Greenlaw being gone.
-- In a lame season of commercials, I guess a strong contender for my ‘best commercial of the Super Bowl’ award goes to the Ben Affleck/Dunkin Donuts spot. Plus, I’m glad to see Tom Brady getting some endorsement work. I’m happy for him...I was getting worried whether he’d be able to make ends meet once he retired from his job but in this new, inflated economy many of the retired are having to go back to work, so Tom has to do what he has to do.
I think my favorite commercial – Vince Vaughn’s BetMGM spot with...yep, Tom Brady. Dammit, Tommy...do you need all the money on the planet earth? Can you share some of it with the rest of us?
-- I was gonna bet the Chase Young (2 tackles, 1 sack) OVER on him getting a sack in this game but the odds were not great so I dragged my feet and never made the bet. I wasn’t alone, based on the odds, that others had the same vibe apparently – that Young was likely gonna give some kind of effort after being called out/publicly shamed for lack of effort the prior game...and very early on, Young got his sack.
Young was present and visibly playing well early on...then totally disappeared the rest of the game. Typical Chase Young...gives a minor effort, then goes to sleep for 95% of the game and is overall ineffective. Don’t worry, some NFL team will give him a 1-year, $10M deal in 2024 because the NFL cannot stop loving useless EDGE rushers.
All the big-name EDGE rushers in the 2023 season mostly didn’t make the playoffs and if they did...they didn’t register a win. Nick Bosa was an outlier, he made it to the Super Bowl...but no title. The money and wasted draft capital that the Bosa brothers and Chase Young types are for their limited value on the field play-to-play is my #1 pet peeve in football.
Meanwhile, KC entered the game having lost their best EDGE (Charles Omenihu) in their last game...and no one noticed/the Chiefs won another title. No one cared about Chiefs’ EDGE George Karlaftis (5 tackles, 0.50 sacks, 3 QB hits), but he was everywhere this game...as we pointed out on our preview show last week...one of our early top prop bets – we hit the OVER on his 3.5 tackles before the end of the 1st-quarter, then got his 0.25 OVER on sacks a little later, both bets at ‘plus’ odds. Karlaftis also recovered that CMC fumble early in the game. Karlaftis and Bosa both led the game in QB hits (3). In the 0-0 start to this game, through the 1st-quarter, Karlaftis was arguably the game’s MVP. Not Bosa...not Young.
I thank George for the double prop win...early...because the rest of my handful of props were gonna get to the edge of victory then slapped out of my hand. Including one prop loss that I want to take to court to appeal. More on that in a bit.
-- Jauan Jennings (4-42-1/5) then made his first pitch for game MVP with his double pass TD throw to CMC...a throw that looked incredibly dangerous, but some great blocking, and the always flag happy referee’s missing a 49ers penalty for illegal man downfield – and the next thing you know it’s 10-0 49ers...looking on their way to a title. Little did they know...
-- All of a sudden, an old-timey political commercial hit my TV screen for Robert F. Kennedy Jr. running for President. I was baffled by two things, when this hit...
1) It was less nostalgic and more ‘creepy’ and ‘odd’, and I wondered exactly who this spot was appealing to. It also reminded me how ridiculous the commercials and messaging were for products and politicians 60-70 years ago.
2) RFK is running for President as an Independent? I thought he might, but I guess I’ve had my head buried in NFL Draft scouting because I didn’t know that was official. Is there really going to be a 3-way Presidential debate between Trump-Biden and RFK coming to our TVs soon? That may get higher TV viewership than this Super Bowl.
-- And then it was HALFTIME! 10-3 San Francisco leading and looking like the better of the two teams.
As always, the halftime show is not for me. Not my kind of music...but I guess I’m an outlier in this every year. I couldn’t name you one Usher song title for a billion-dollar reward. I have as many Usher songs ‘liked’ on my Spotify as I do Heisman Trophy wins...none.
When Usher started singing, I was wondering if this was a prank. Like was this a real, popular singer in the world today? I kept waiting for Simon Cowell to hit his buzzer...but he never did. Not my kind of music. BUT then Alicia Keys appeared, to save my day! Then Usher is on roller-skates...respect. Skating on a small, elevated stage on live television on what will be the biggest worldwide TV audience of 2024...while singing/performing? Respect. Although, I imagine it is not musically refined to say about Usher’s halftime performance...’Hey, that was some great roller skating’! I don’t think that was supposed to be his most impressive feature.
Hey, if my favorite things about the Usher halftime show were surprise guest appearances by Alicia Keys, Lil’ Jon, and Ludacris...and roller skating...so be it. At least, I had something non-Usher vocals to enjoy.
Back to the game...
-- Dre Greenlaw was already lost and then Deebo Samuel (3-33-0/11) went down grabbing his hamstring area. I thought for sure, Deebo was done – but credit to him, he gutted it out and at least was a distraction for the Chiefs to account for the rest of the game and through OT.
Deebo was not impactful in this game...nor was Brandon Aiyuk (3-49-0/6) but credit the Chiefs secondary...arguably the best/deepest secondary in football.
-- My favorite commercial, because of the surprise appearance it was to me, was the Judge Judy takeoff bit with the ‘Suits’ characters as the stars of the ad – especially delightful for me to see my single favorite character from that show, Louis Litt, make an appearance. Mike and Harvey were great too, but Louis was lowkey spectacular in ‘Suits’.
I have been binge watching ‘Suits’ since the 2023 NFL regular season has ended...taking a break from football work to clear my head for a few minutes each day. It’s a great show...one of the best TV series I’ve ever seen. Apparently, I’m not alone – did you know ‘Suits’ was the most watched streaming show (in terms of time spent/clocked/logged) in 2023? And yet the first season of it debuted in 2011...but it’s just being ‘discovered’ by the world now.
-- Deebo and Aiyuk were disappointments for the 49ers’ WR group here, but Jauan Jennings popped back up again to give the 49ers the lead back early in the 4th-quarter. A nice TD catch on my/FFM’s Defensive Player of the Year, L’Jarius Sneed...the first TD catch he allowed all 2023 season.
I thought for sure Jennings was going to win the MVP at this point...to my dismay, as I bet a basket of props on the Super Bowl MVP 4+ weeks ago...a basket of Purdy, CMC, and Josh Allen at decent-ish odds but also Aiyuk-Deebo-Kittle-Kelce-Stafford at much bigger paydays (if they hit). I thought I’d at least get Purdy or CMC in to cover the bets on the other long shots. Instead, I was watching Jauan Jennings put on a show. Good for him...bad for me...but he wasn’t going to be the MVP in the end.
And if I owned Jennings in a deeper Dynasty league...I’m a seller for sure this week.
-- The streak of terrible Super Bowl commercials from UberEats continues. Whomever is in charge of marketing for them is bad at their job. The Jennifer Anniston-David Schwimmer bit was unfunny as were all the other little ‘jokes’ in-between. Every year, I’m left dumbfounded by UberEats commercial choices.
They need to just call in the commercial moneymaker to save them...Tom Brady.
-- The key moment of this game likely happened after the Jauan Jennings TD...the extra point was blocked to keep it a 3-point game...and you just knew keeping it to a 3-point game would be ominous, and it was. When Jake Moody hit a go-ahead 53-yard field goal with 1:53 remaining, I thought the 49ers were going to pull this out and that Moody was then gonna/should be the game’s MVP with two 50+ yard field goals in the game.
He would not be.
Moody was the #99 pick in the 2023 NFL Draft...a pick that was mocked but is turning out to be one of the great picks in the draft. 13 picks later, Bill Belichick selected kicker Chad Ryland, who was a disaster.
Coming off this game, and the visibility, Moody will have momentum to be a top 3 kicker in Dynasty ranks for sure. The last time the post season propelled a rookie kicker like this was Evan McPherson the Bengals 2021 Super Bowl year...and McPherson has been solid but never as good as his high visibility breakout...and McPherson’s rookie season was way better than Moody’s. We’re gonna forget Moody was struggling all playoffs into this game. I’d be a Moody seller in Dynasty if someone loved it as an add-on in a multiplayer deal.
-- Leave it to Arnold Schwarzenegger to make me pine for the comedic stylings of Jake from State Farm or Flo from Progressive. Anything but more Arnold. He says ‘neighbor’ with a different accent...how hilarious. Let me go online and sign up for all the insurances.
Wait, all my insurance is already through State Farm. Damn you State Farm!!!!!!!
-- I feel like Rashee Rice (6-39-0/8) is getting played out/figured out...and he’s gonna be a ‘sell high’ this Dynasty offseason.
I think teams are realizing what I’ve been harping on since Rice started breaking out in output earlier this season – it’s mostly a simple tunnel or bubble screen type of simple work. He’s not working as a smooth all-around WR, because I don’t think he is a smooth all-around WR. Credit KC for finding his niche and leveraging it to the Super Bowl...but teams were better defending it/shutting it down at the end of the season.
Rice’s last three games were all under 50 yards receiving with just one TD in his final 6 games played (including the playoffs).
Rice was KC’s de facto #1 WR for 2023...one of the reasons why this season was such a disaster for this offense/passing game/Mahomes’s numbers being so off. When/if the Chiefs address the WR problem by bringing in some studs...Rice is going to slowly vanish from memories.
-- Patrick Mahomes answered the Moody field goal with a drive down into field goal range to tie it/send it to overtime. This late 4th-quarter drive featured Travis Kelce at his best, taking over.
Kelce’s got a funny Dynasty/Fantasy status today...everyone living in fear of Kelce aging out and leaving Dynasty owners left holding the bag of a no-value player. Every offseason, for the past 3-4 offseasons, Dynasty owners have been trying to time the market peak on Kelce and selling him off...only to see him lead the way at TE in Fantasy.
Kelce was going gangbusters the 1st-half of the 2023 season, then he died off in the 2nd-half (upon dating Taylor)...then he was sluggish in his first two playoff games...but then was white hot Kelce again in the last two playoff games. How to value Kelce for Dynasty in 2024 is one of my biggest projects of the offseason...we’ve been buyers for years now, but has the ‘time come’? We’ll debate it and quantify it on FFM all offseason.
Speaking of that – our first Dynasty top 600 valuations/rankings for 2024 will debut in about a week or so...and it will include initial projections/valuations on the top rookies at each position. The top 600 will update weekly all offseason.
And don’t forget...the time-is-a-wasting...on our big Dynasty ‘buy low’ proposition player, now that the Super Bowl is over (but it’s not a Chief or 49er). Be sure you’ve read and considered that report – because time is limited on the discount acquisition cost. It may be the most important move you will make all Dynasty offseason...right here, right now...for a limited time only and then it will vanish. See the FFM website for that report.
-- So, the game goes to overtime...which delighted me because I needed more time for my prop bets still hanging to come through: Trent McDuffie OVER 3.5 tackles (he had 3 at this point, going into OT) and Isiah Pacheco OVER 67.5 rushing yards (he was mid-50s going into OT).
There was some clamor over the 49ers taking the ball first in OT, instead of deferring, and I get that as a proper strategy...but don’t overlook two factors that Kyle Shanahan likely made the seemingly ‘dumb’ (not dumb) decision on...
1) KC just put together a 2-minute drive where the offense was clicking, really the best drive they had all game (to that point). I don’t think Shanahan wanted to put that hot/in sync offense right back out onto the field.
2) It was a 2-minute KC drive at the end of regulation, but it took like an hour (it seemed) with timeouts, etc. The 49ers defense was likely gassed at that point...part of the reason why KC was finally looking like the KC offense of old. Letting the defense get a rest was likely a big part of the thought of the 49ers’ process.
I get both sides of the argument, but to criticize or denigrate Kyle Shanahan over it is silly/typical knee-jerk whiny baby football fans finding things to whine about after they didn’t go their way that instant. There was no obvious/absolute here.
-- In overtime, on the 49ers first drive, a couple plays in...Trent McDuffie made a nice tackle on CMC (I think it was CMC) and I jumped for joy that the biggest single prop I played for this game just came in (McDuffie OVER 3.5 tackles)...and I needed OT to do it, but hey...the betting gods always owe me.
So, I was waiting for the official tackle count on the box score to change...and I waited, and I waited...and the next play went off...and I waited some more...then another play went off...Son of a $#%#%@$@^% they didn’t credit McDuffie with that tackle. He came flying in and knocked the ballcarriers legs out, and the ballcarrier lurched forward another yard+ while falling down and other Chiefs landed on him in that process...and they must have gotten credit for the tackle by landing on what McDuffie created. I want a class action lawsuit. I’m calling Louis Litt...actually, this is a job for Harvey and Mike. The betting gods are cruel, merciless beings.
Then Isiah Pacheco got a few cracks in OT to beat his OVER 67.5 yards rushing, but he fell short at 59 yards. And my promising prop betting day to start in this game...it all slipped away, just short and just screwed on McDuffie. My first losing prop betting week of the postseason. Stupid Super Bowl.
-- As the game was nearing its conclusion, I realized something – there were no new movie trailers that aired that featured movies that I had any interest in going to see. Man, Hollywood is really falling down. Please, Quintin Tarantino...hurry up with your next film project to give me some hope.
-- I thought Jauan Jennings was going to be a shoo-in for the MVP at first...then I thought Jake Moody might get it...then I had some hope my Travis Kelce long shot might payoff late, but nope...Patrick Mahomes drove the Chiefs down the field, using his arm and his legs (66 yards rushing)...and thus he won the game’s MVP...and all my long shot Super Bowl MVP bets officially got flushed. He deserved it.
-- We now move onto the 2024 season, where I guess KC are the favorites? Why not? This was the worst KC team in the past five seasons...and they somehow found a way to win it all. If they add two legit WRs and keep Chris Jones – how won’t they be the favorites?
-- One of my predictions for the week after the big game was (made last week) that Kyle Shanahan would fire defensive coordinator Steve Wilks. It won’t be a cold firing...more of a ‘he takes a job elsewhere’ nudge out the door. The 49ers defense underperformed all 2nd-half of the season and didn’t get better/got worse after the Chase Young acquisition.
-- Finally, let’s end on ‘love’...
The kind of love I wish I had in my life. I am captivated by the look on Taylor Swift’s face every time she sees her boyfriend do anything. We all should be so lucky as to have someone fawn over our every move. My wife was not near as interested in my Trent McDuffie prop betting class action lawsuit proposals. I bet Taylor Swift would’ve understood me.
It’s not sustainable, though...right? It can’t be real? They’re gonna breakup in 2024 at some point, right? Am I just hating on ‘love’?
Weeks ago, I wondered if Travis might consider retiring after the Super Bowl...retire with his brother and go pursue a Hollywood life awaiting and be a Swift groupie around the globe, but Kelce proudly proclaimed from the podium at the Lombardi trophy presentation that he was coming back to go for the three-peat. So, ‘bullet dodged’ for us Dynasty owners of Travis.
That’s it for the 2023 NFL season. Now, we’re on to (already have been) studying the 2024 NFL Draft prospects for Dynasty Rookie Drafts and analyzing free agency possibilities...all the work for prepping for another profitable Dynasty-Fantasy and prop betting season. Although the 2023 betting year is going to be very tough to beat...not sure there will be another gift like Bryce Young to bet against, or Rachaad White to bet one in the face of the mainstream forcefully (and thankfully) against it.
There always seems to be the thing that’s wildly overrated by the mainstream football minds every season and Vegas sets their odds by them...and I’ll be studying it, seeking it out, and writing about it all offseason.
There is no offseason for real football analysis.
Sayonara to the 2023 season.
