Game overview:
The Panthers ran their 1st-team offense for two series here. The Lions played their backups in response. So, we got a fresh look at Bryce Young...three games into the preseason, two series of play against a pretty scrappy Lions 2nd-team defense. This was better competition (for Bryce) than what Kenny Pickett had versus the Falcons the prior day.
The Panthers scored on both their first 2 drives with the 1st-team, so Bryce Young is now ‘fixed’ and on his way to the Hall of Fame...is the mainstream analysis of this game. My take: Not so much, but we’ll get to that.
As far as this game goes, when it went to backups versus backups, when it relied on Lions coaching versus Panthers coaching -- after a 10-0 Panthers start, it was 20-7 Lions the rest of the way as they won convincingly...with the Panthers QBs all combined completing 48.9% of their passes. In all three preseason games, the Panthers QBs have thrown a total of 2 TDs/3 INTs. It hasn’t been good. The Panthers finished (0-3) this preseason.
Keep in mind, for a preseason schedule, the Panthers drew about the worst three opponents you could in 2023 -- NYJ-NYG-DET...three of the toughest defenses in the NFL, and they played defense with fire all three matchups...because that’s who they are, even the backups. The easiest matchup Bryce Young will have in his early NFL career will be facing the Falcons starting defense Week 1. Had Carolina drawn the Rams, Falcons, and Chargers (just thinking of teams who don’t really participate in the preseason) instead, there would probably be a greater false-hope impression of Carolina going into Week 1. As of now, after their preseason showing, the public is shaky on them...but the football analyst-class is still totally into the Panthers and their favorite rookie horse in this race, Bryce. I saw Colin Cowherd’s ‘viable playoff teams for 2023’ segment yesterday...and Carolina was on the bubble/watch list for the playoffs for him. Huh?
With this Carolina 1st-team having two scoring drives to open the game, it means that the Panthers betting lines won’t fall any further most likely. In fact, I could see the Week 1 ATL game going from -3.5 ATL back down to -3.0 after this. The over/under win total odds on the Panthers have not really moved since this game closed. I think the Panthers are cemented in place for betting right now.
Detroit, on the other hand, will get a major media push from here -- they need to be propped up like a big-time opponent for the Chiefs on the opening night TV show. Get ready for a week+ of ‘don’t sleep on the Lions’ or ‘here’s how Detroit can beat the Chiefs’ articles. The People’s Republic of the NFL has sent out the talking points since the schedule was announced. The machine has already been working, and it will be at its peak in the first week of September.
I have already bet ATL -3.0 and -2.5 (currently -3.5) much earlier this year and the Chiefs -6.5 was my first early-game bet of 2023. The KC-DET line hasn’t moved an inch since the schedule was announced, that I see. The Lions are good/solid, but I think they’re about to walk into a buzzsaw Week 1.
Scouting Notes from the game:
-- We begin with the Bryce Young (7-12 for 1/TD/0 INT, 3-21-0/3) review.
He led two scoring drives and threw his first TD pass in his pro career...so, the mainstream is well pleased/let’s out a sigh of relief.
Let’s play ‘he said/she said’ on this Bryce event.
What THEY saw: Bryce took another step forward and is getting comfortable in this offense.
What RC saw: This was arguably the worst of all three of his preseason performances.
In the first 2 preseason games, Bryce was under pressure so much it was hard to tell how much to blame on the O-Line and what role Bryce’s limited talents played. In this game, Bryce had time. The Lions decided to give him time...they rushed just the front four many times and didn’t really blitz or stunt much, and just dropped everyone else into coverage and that forced Bryce to try and play pocket QB and he mostly either ran the ball/scrambled for his life or sailed incomplete passes. He did float a couple medium range passes on the money, but for every hit there was a bad miss -- and that’s par for the course for a rookie.
What struck me here was -- when Bryce isn’t just quick-drop and timing short pass fire, when he had to be a true pocket QB in this event...he looked the same, to me, as he did in college against Texas and Georgia -- he’s not great. In the pocket against good defenses, he’s more what you’d expect to see from _____ (fill-in your favorite NFL backup, who is short...like Heinicke, etc.). Bryce had time to be a QB here, and it was shaky mixed with a couple slow-moving, but accurate, floating passes -- the kind of passes that #1 corners and 1st-team defenses are going to feast on.
The Panthers traded the moon and the stars to draft their Taylor Heinicke...and Heinicke hasn’t been a bad NFL QB -- give him time and he’s pretty scrappy/effective...but he’s not taking a team on a Super Bowl run. Heinicke was an undrafted free agent who was out of football when he got called to come tryout for depth one last time a few years ago and cost the league minimum. Bryce Young costs $38M guaranteed over the next four years and cost them a 1st-round pick in 2024 and two other 2nd-round picks (23 and 24).
Bryce belongs in the NFL, but he’s going to be a monumental disappointment when critics look back over time.
What really stuck with me after this game, about Bryce...
When I watch Anthony Richardson interact with the other players, he’s already a team leader...and you can see him on the sidelines interacting with various players. When I watched Bryce here, they pan over to the sidelines all the time (on the Carolina feed) and all I ever see is one of two things: (1) Bryce standing alone with a yard of space to his left and his right. (2) Bryce interacting with Josh McCown like they’re 10 years old best pals/buddies who are planning a sleepover for the weekend.
Richardson convenes the huddle like a commander...he’s such a physical presence, it’s just natural to him. When Bryce convenes the huddle, he almost looks embarrassed to be there. His eyes dip down too much, like a scared opposing fighter at the pre-boxing match referee’s instructions facing Iron Mike Tyson in his prime. Young shows no emotion ever, which is taken as steely calmness by the fawning media...but it looks like he’s ‘bored’, to me. Richardson shows calm/controlled energy...and he will go to Philly and do a mock ‘Fly Eagles Fly’ maneuver after someone else on his team rushed for a TD. After the Carolina first TD in this game, I think Bryce sauntered over to get a hug/pat on the head/a treat from Josh McCown. I didn’t see him go celebrate with the very celebratory group in the end zone when Adam Thielen caught the TD pass...the first TD for the 1st-team all preseason, I think. Maybe he sauntered over to the end zone, but I didn’t see him with the raucous group in the end zone with Thielen.
Bryce Young needs supreme protection to be an effective NFL QB, as I’ve maintained all summer. He doesn’t have that with this Panthers team...but he had the MOST supreme protection/time/weapons at Alabama, though. Bryce is a lot like Trevor Lawrence in that way (they need pristine situations to do well, and they buckle in muddy situations), but at least Lawrence has a 2x stronger arm and is about a foot taller...with a 10x better head coach and 10x better O-Line.
You’ve heard of a ‘player’s coach’? Bryce is a ‘coach’s player’...not ‘one of the guys’, it appears...I fear. You’ve heard of a ‘Mama’s boy’ label? Bryce is a ‘Coach’s boy’. Coaches and owners love how Young interacts with them...I don’t know if it’s just where he’s more comfortable or if he’s perfected shining them all on through the years, but I think Bryce is showing all the signs of a Silver Spoon/Glass Jaw QB in an era where the gritty rule and the pampered (p_QB) disappoint.
But I’m sure Bryce will get better as he goes...he’ll get all the 1st-team reps for years, he will not be allowed any competition (even if accidental, they’ll squash the guy or trade him), and he’ll get all the coach’s attention for the next few years including a playbook that features his limitations. The spoon of silver will continue to be shoveled into Bryce’s mouth for years to come.
Sam Darnold was/is not a failure...all he needed was the right coach and the right chance (this has been repeated in the media for 5+ years). Same will be said of Bryce the next five years. Bryce is better than Sam, however.
-- Using this game as our guide -- Bryce’s #1 target is Adam Thielen (4-48-1/5) and it’s not debatable...and it makes sense. Bryce feels more comfortable interacting with coaches, and Thielen is like a coach on the field among the WR group. Thielen isn’t in his prime anymore but he’s still good and experienced and useful for PPR in your redrafts...but most will bypass him to chase a sexier story.
-- The Lions didn’t play their 1st-team, so it was a battle of their 2nd-team WRs...of which, given the Jameson Williams issues, this competition matters -- one of these guys is gonna be a #4/5 WR in Week 1...unless the Lions add a veteran cut from another team pre-53-man, which I think they might.
But the battle of youngsters looks like this, to me:
Rookie UDFA Chase Cota (3-42-0/8) looks the best to me...the WR that the backup QBs seem to look to the most. He has size and grit and professionalism with some athleticism.
I’d say rookie 6th-round pick, who I like, Antoine Green (3-97-1/4) is maybe running second...could be first of this group, but he’s a different receiver than Cota -- Green is a speedster who can stretch the field, as he did with a basic slant catch-and-run (by everyone) for a 70-yard TD in this game. Green should eventually be the best of this group.
UDFA Dylan Drummond (5-46-0/6) I’d say is running third. He’s less athletic than the other guys but he’s been a professional catcher of the ball all camp and in preseason games. He may have earned a spot on the roster, especially for 6 weeks with Jameson Williams out.
It also wouldn’t surprise me if Jameson were traded to a rebuilding team before the 53-man roster is announced...in a similar manner to how original draft teams gave up on Kadarius Toney and Chase Claypool. He’s got Buccaneer or Cowboy or Seahawk written all over him.
-- I’m not sure if Adrian Martinez (5-11 for 35 yards, 0 TD/0 INT, 5-10-0) was even gonna play this game, Nate Sudfeld got hurt soon after getting into the game and Martinez got to play most of the 2nd-half. He did OK, but he’s been left out there to die and he’s trying his best (not to die), but he needs 2-3 years of development...and the NFL ain’t into that. Not time for it and rare few coaches that could do it. He should go to the XFL or USFL, then work his way back to the NFL but he may make the team if the Sudfeld injury is serious.
-- Lions IDP notes...
Two IDPs stood out some here:
UDFA rookie LB Trevor Nowaske (6 tackles) is a ‘Dan Campbell kinda guy’...a try-hard, athletic prospect from a small school...he might make this team for special teams and that give him the development time he needs.
UDFA CB Steven Gilmore (5 tackles, 4 PDs, one pick-six) is really making a bid to make this team. The brother of Stephon Gilmore just keeps making plays/showing up. He’s 5’9”/174 but a 4.44 runner and obviously well trained from his brother. Could be a slot corner someday.
