Russell Wilson was one of the first REWIND study/report candidates I put on my list for consideration this summer. I wanted to go to the tape and see/how/why Russ was so bad at cooking in 2022…was it really on Nathaniel Hackett or the O-Line or the weak WRs…or all of it? What was 'it' really?
I did look into Russ's tape a little bit for some draft guide prep back in April/May, but I decided to drop the full study for this summer because of one main reason -- everything is going to change with Sean Payton. I'm not saying it's a good or bad change either…but when I consider that there's so much change coming with Russell Wilson in 2023, I feel like it might be a waste of time/howling at the moon to go through his weird 2022 to predict his 2023.
So much changed for him from 2021 to 2022…and now so much is changing for him from 2022 to 2023…new coach/better coach (anything would be better)…better O-Line (in theory). It's so bizarre that a QB would go from a top 5 QB in the game to bottom 5 in the game in just one year -- without a major injury at the center of the equation. I see all the arguments for an improved 2023. I also see reason to worry Russ is '2022 Russ' now and celebrity/money/superstar wife has gone to his head and messed him up.
Here's my base REWIND(ish) summary for Russell Wilson…my 2022 study into 2023 is: I don't know.
Too many fluid variables in 2022 and now into 2023. One side of this coin is going to be 'right', and congrats to those who get it right, but I don't think the upside of an improvement, in the year 2023 with Russ, is enough to spend a lot of study energy on and/or thinking that the energy spent in study will really 'predict' the future/2023.
I will give you two thoughts about my shorter study of his tape for 2022, and my thoughts on Sean Payton's impact for 2023…
1) Watching the tape of Russ's 2022 work…not good. I don't mean that in the obvious way. Let me make a comparison…
When Justin Herbert had to deal with (2022) all his O-Line out/down, a broken rib, and the worst O-C in the NFL in 2022, and missing Keenan Allen for half a season -- I can look at his play/tape and still marvel at all the things Herbert can do on pure greatness with everything going against him.
Russell Wilson was put into a similar tough situation in 2022…and he was scared, ineffective, off kilter, looked terrible, threw passes that made no sense, missed wide open options running free. Russ really looked terrible. And that's coming off a down year in 2021 where he had a weak O-Line, great weapons, and the coach who would be there for the great Geno turnaround the next year. Russ wasn't just suddenly bad in 2022…he was starting to struggle/buckle in 2021.
But I know he was great from 2012-2020…so, I'm not going to deny/write off that he (or Payton) doesn't 'fix' what's broken or whatever. But the guy (Russ) I saw in 2022 was not elite…he was not able to take weak surroundings and make some kind of mild lemonade out of it (like a Herbert or Burrow can/do)…and that thought sticks with me more than 'man, if he can get back to 2020 Russ! What a Fantasy deal he will be right now!'
I'm happy to just 'pass' on Russ for 2023 and let someone else shoot their shot here. I got other options better/more intriguing that I'm focused on among the fringe QB1/2 hopefuls.
2) I don't know how great Sean Payton is/was. I don't know how much of Payton's genius was Drew Brees and how much can be assigned to Payton?
Was it Belichick or Brady? The world has now learned it was 'Brady'.
McCarthy or Rodgers? Rodgers.
Roethlisberger or Tomlin? Big Ben.
Peyton Manning or any coach he had? Peyton
I just listed some of the best, sustainable QBs of the past decade.
Why would I assume with the same question: Payton or Brees…that the answer is Payton/the coach in that case? Why would I assume that Payton has some magic fairy dust to sprinkle on Russ in 2023? Sean Payton's career arc is eerily similar to Mike McCarthy's…only we think McCarthy is a buffoon but think Payton is a genius because he had that heart tugging Katrina season. We have long forgotten 'bountygate', among other Payton 'negatives'.
Payton, as a head coach in the NFL is a terrific 152-89 (63.1%) with a 9-8 playoff record and one Super Bowl season and despite all the NFC South titles with Brees, he never won another NFC title game in his 15 years besides the Super Bowl run one-time. Since his Super Bowl title in 2009, Payton never won more than one playoff game in any postseason and is (5-7) in the playoffs in that span.
This is the guy who will turn everything around, magically, in Denver with fading (lately) Russ?
Compare Sean Payton to Mike McCarthy (McCarthy who won the Super Bowl the year AFTER Payton/the Saints did it back in the 2010 season…)
Regular Season records as HC in the NFL…
152-89 (63.1%) = Payton in 15 seasons as HC
155-97 (61.4%) = McCarthy in 16 seasons as HC
Super Bowl titles…
1 = Payton (2009)
1 = McCarthy (2010)
Playoff record aside from their Super Bowl season…
(6-8) 42.9% = Payton
(7-10) 41.2% = McCarthy
Playoff record AFTER their Super Bowl run (both with elite/HOF QBs)…
(5-7) 41.7% = Payton
(6-8) 42.9% = McCarthy
Top 10 finishes in scoring offense (points) as HC…
12 = Payton
10 = McCarthy
Passing yardage ranks in the NFL their last 4 seasons as an HC in the NFL…
#12-7-19-32 = Payton (2018-2021)
#9-8-2-14 = McCarthy (2018-2022)
Who ever speaks of McCarthy taking Dak to another level? But Payton is for sure fixing Russ... no doubt about it, right?
Perhaps, Payton will turn Russ around and be lauded as a/the top offensive mind in the NFL. But might I remind you -- Payton's O-C is Joe Lombardi, and he was that single-worst offensive coordinator in 2022 I mentioned with the Chargers last season. We'll see if Payton is the magic elixir for Russ…or, you can see…not me. I'm not playing in this sandbox for FF 2023…not FF-gambling on Russ and not FF-working with any of his receivers. You can have them all.
