Mixing it up a little bit for this year's Faux -- we're going to begin with the FULL Faux season in one published piece from national NFL Mock Draft expert Xavier Cromartie and handicapping maven Bet The Close podcast's Chris Bilello.
Xavier, Chris and I (RC) have been doing these Faux seasons for a couple years now…me and Xavier for many years. The rules are: everyone must finish their run/details and then send in, so no one is jaded or compromised by the other's work…my Faux season is in the books before I see there Faux's to set up for publishing.
So, here are Chris's July 2023 season-long-through-the-playoffs projections for how he sees the perfect world playing out…
Chris Bilello's Faux 2023 (July):
The way I approach this exercise is to go through each week of the season and pick a winner of each game. The commentary throughout the season is my thoughts on seeing the standings based on those results. I do not go back and adjust any results to fit what I think the standings should look like.
Three big themes that were not at the top of my mind, but I now realize were in my head
1: I'm assuming Tua stays healthy
2: I was kind of assuming J. Love is not good
3: I realize I was also projecting health and a nice jump for Justin Fields
(Standings and playoff tournament below some weekly notes Chris had as his Faux was playing out)
Weeks 1-3 Notes:
-- NE 0-3 stood out a bit, but the schedule starts PHI, MIA, @NYJ. Probably get one of those but pretty clear how the 0-3 appeared.
-- TEN is 0-3, they could actually start 3-0. @NO, LAC, @CLE.
Weeks 4-6 Notes:
-- MIA 6-0 is a stunner, I'm high on them and the schedule is @LAC, @NE, DEN, @BUF, NYG, CAR. Probably not 6-0 but that's what the game-by-game spit out.
-- TEN 0-6 seems very not right. @NO, LAC, @CLE, CIN, @IND, BAL
Weeks 7-9 Notes:
-- Perhaps the most surprising record is the Giants at 2-7. For a team that could easily start 2-0 facing DAL, @ARI, @SF, SEA, @MIA, @BUF, WAS.
Weeks 10-12 Notes:
-- Time to look closer into BUF sitting at 5-7. @NYJ, LV, @WAS, MIA, JAX, NYG, @ NE, TB, @CIN, DEN, NYJ, @PHI. I have the Bills struggling with NYJ and MIA in division.
-- Also JAX 5-7 while we're at it. @IND, KC, HOU, (ATL, BUF in LON) IND, @NO, @PIT, SF, TEN, @HOU, CIN. They could easily outperform my expectations.
Weeks 13-15 Notes:
-- ATL and CLE 10-4, both have decently good schedules.
Weeks 16-18 Notes/Final:
Obviously surprising to have Buffalo miss the playoffs in favor of Cleveland. I'm realizing one more big assumption --Watson returns to form.
FINAL STANDINGS:
AFC East W L PCT
MIA … 14 - 3 = 0.824
NYJ … 12 - 5 = 0.706
BUF … 8 - 9 = 0.471
NE …. 8 - 9 = 0.471
===============
AFC North W L PCT
CIN … 14 - 3 = 0.824
CLE … 12 - 5 = 0.706
BAL … 11 - 6 = 0.647
PIT … 8 - 9 = 0.471
===============
AFC South W L PCT
JAX … 9 - 8 = 0.529
IND … 8 - 9 = 0.471
TEN … 7 - 10 = 0.412
HOU … 3 - 14 = 0.176
===============
AFC West W L PCT
KC …. 14 - 3 = 0.824
DEN … 14 - 3 = 0.824
LAC … 5 - 12 = 0.294
LV … 3 - 14 = 0.176
===============
NFC East W L PCT
PHI … 15 - 2 = 0.882
DAL … 10 - 7 = 0.588
NYG … 5 - 12 = 0.294
WAS … 2 - 15 = 0.118
===============
NFC North W L PCT
CHI … 13 - 4 = 0.765
DET … 12 - 5 = 0.706
GB …. 6 - 11 = 0.353
MIN … 4 - 13 = 0.235
===============
NFC South W L PCT
ATL … 11 - 6 = 0.647
NO …. 9 - 8 = 0.529
CAR … 6 - 11 = 0.353
TB …. 0 - 17 = 0.000
===============
NFC West W L PCT
SF …. 14 - 3 = 0.824
SEA … 9 - 8 = 0.529
LAR … 5 - 12 = 0.294
ARI … 1 - 16 = 0.059
AFC Seeding
1 - CIN
2 - KC
3 - MIA
4 - JAX
5 - DEN
6 - NYJ
7 - CLE
NFC Seeding
1 - PHI
2 - SF
3 - CHI
4 - ATL
5 - DET
6 - DAL
7 - SEA
----------------------------------------
Super Wild Card Weekend
CIN - BYE
PHI - BYE
---------------------
AFC
2/7 seeds: CLE@KC
Great projected improvement for CLE to win 12 games but Watson returning to form means not winning in the playoffs. KC 34, CLE 10
3/6 seeds: NYJ@MIA
Great projected improvement for the Jets to win 13 games but Aaron Rodgers racks up regular season wins, not playoffs dubs. MIA 17, NYJ 11
4/5 seeds: DEN/JAX
This time Jacksonville gets behind but it's not such a soft opponent and they can't complete the comeback. DEN 36, JAX 27
---------------------
NFC:
2/7 seeds: SEA@SF
Familiarity breeds contempt and it also favors the better team in a one and done. SF 24, SEA 10
3/6 seeds: DAL@CHI
This would be the biggest coin toss game of the six games this round. I'll take the home field putting the Bears over the top on a double doink FG that goes in. CHI 19, DAL 18
4/5 seeds: DET@ATL
Good season for the Falcons but if they get here, it's the easy schedule that is the wind beneath their wings. The Lions are a bit battle tested based on the way last season finished and have a QB who's played in the big game. DET 41, ATL 23
-----------------------------
Divisional Round
DEN@CIN
The first-round bye and an even better defense have the Bengals ready for another deep playoff run. CIN 24, DEN 13
MIA@KC
I feel like making a shocking playoff pick so here goes, Goodell saves the pro KC refs for the Bengals and Vic Fangio puts together a game plan that gets the job done. MIA 24, KC 20
DET@PHI
Before you think blowout, remember that while PHI handled DET in their game in early ‘22, the Lions came back to lose by 3 (and cover a 4-point spread). PHI 34, DET 27
CHI@SF
NOW would be a good time to think blowout. SF 31, CHI 7
--------------------------------
AFC Championship
MIA@CIN
Too much too fast for the Dolphins and their great season ends on Championship Sunday. The Bengals are awesome. CIN 25, MIA 14
NFC Championship
SF@PHI
The Niners have waited a very long year to get back to this spot, with a healthy QB they not only compete but punch their ticket to Vegas. SF 34, PHI 33
------------------------------
Super Bowl
SF vs CIN
On this stage I'll take Burrow's winning ways vs Shanahan's losing ways. CIN finally gets the Super Bowl they could have (and maybe should have) won each of the past two seasons. CIN 38, SF 17
