2022-23 Wild Card Playoff NFL Handicapping: All Picks ATS and Survivor Pool Pick
Finished Week 18 very strong…to wrap up our best year of handicapping. I've heard from so many of you on your office pool wins and overall profitable betting seasons -- that's awesome. That's what we want every year for subscribers…turn a profit on football endeavors with some aid from our unique scouting and projection models. Congrats to all of us! They cannot get FanDuel and DraftKings legal everywhere fast enough.
Let's see if we can carry our regular season momentum into the playoffs!
Week 18/Final regular season results…
FFM All picks straight up: 14-2
FFM ATS: 11-5
FFM Best Bet: 1-0
FFM Blazing Five (no TNF): 4-1
FFM Calling a dog for an outright win: 3-0
Chris ATS: 7-9
Ross ATS: 9-7
Chris Best Bet: 1-0
Ross Best Bet: 1-0
When All 3 analysts agree: 4-3
When both analysts disagree with my pick: 1-0, for me
FFM Survivor: CAR(W)
Chris Survivor: XXX
Ross Survivor: MIN(W)
All Underdogs ATS = 8-8
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YTD results…
All picks straight up: 191-88-2
ATS: 162-104-5 (60.9%)
Best Bet: 11-6
Blazing Five (no TNF): 55-31-3 (64.0%)
Calling a dog for an outright win: 21-13
Chris ATS: 153-113-5
Ross ATS: 125-123-4
Chris Best Bet: 11-6
Ross Best Bet: 9-8
When All 3 analysts agree: 60-32-1
When both analysts disagree with my pick: 31-19, for me
FFM Survivor: BAL(W), BUF(W), LAC(L), PHI(W), TB(W), CIN(W), KC(W), MIA(W), ATL(L), NO(W), DAL(W), SEA(W), SF(W), MIN(W), DET(L), NYG(W), CAR(W)
Chris Survivor: BAL(W), GB(W), LAC(L), PHI(W), TB(W), LAR(W), CIN(W), DAL(W), BUF(L), TEN(W), SF(W), XXXXX
Ross Survivor: DEN(L), XXX, BUF (L), GB(W), PHI(W), SF(L), LV(W), DAL(W), TB(W), KC(W), BAL(W), MIA(W), SEA(W), CIN(W), NO(W), DET(W), MIN(W)
All Underdogs ATS = 142-124-5
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Wild Card Playoff Picks….
SEA at SF (-9.5)
The Computer says: SF by 12.2 (a 2.7 spread differential)
How can you not take the 49ers here? What's the argument for Seattle? That they're 'due' after losing to SF twice already this year? Hard to beat a team three times in a year? Seattle did keep it closer Week 15 (just an 8-point loss) but, to me, this is simply the 49ers as the far superior team in this game, in the NFC. During their 10-game win streak, the 49ers have won by 10 or more points 70% of the games. Purdy gets better as he goes. Geno is fading a bit as he goes.
This is the best SF team Seattle will face…nothing like the SF they faced Week 2, and even healthier and evolving from Week 15.
The threat of rain all game here helps SF if this gets into a battle of run games.
Chris 'Bet The Close' Podcast: SF
Ross Jacobs: SEA
LAC (-2.5) at JAX *UNDERDOG OUTRIGHT UPSET*
The Computer says: JAX by 1.0 (a 3.5 spread differential)
I believe the Chargers are a bottom 10 NFL team…one that got a lucky schedule stretch late and took advantage to slip into the wild card over a dying cast of teams that also limped in.
Jacksonville, on the other hand, has been playing a tougher schedule and winning a lot. They are simply the better team than the Chargers…because of coaching and game plans.
The Chargers have 'name' talent…but Jacksonville just plays the game better. The Jags already clocked them once…they can do it again here. Justin Herbert being let loose out of despair by LAC is the worry here…he's 10x better than Trevor, but is coached down to his level.
Chris 'Bet The Close' Podcast: JAX
Ross Jacobs: LAC
MIA at BUF (13.5)
The Computer says: BUF by 13.2 (a 0.3 spread differential)
Can't bet this…just picking it. Go with Buffalo if you think it wiser. I just have some wild/dumb idea that Miami will slow this game to a crawl and get Tyreek 10-20 touches as a curveball and keep this game close…or try.
NFL logic says…Miami will stick to their same playbook, and the moment will be over Skylar's head, and Buffalo will put Miami to sleep.
Chris 'Bet The Close' Podcast: MIA
Ross Jacobs: BUF
NYG at MIN (-3.0)
The Computer says: MIN by 0.2 (a 2.8 spread differential)
This is mostly an anti-Vikings bet because they scare me so much…they're playing so poorly for a top record team. We all know the drill…lots of close game wins, lots of LUCKY close game wins. Their defense is a mess. Their O-Line is as unhealthy/missing a starter.
On the other hand, my scouting eye and models say NYG is now better on both sides of the line…and that's key to winning outright…or at least to keeping it close. Vikings home field is a help for Minny. If Adoree Jackson is cleared for this game, not a 'give it a go' availability, then I lean NYG wins…otherwise, I still want the three points.
Chris 'Bet The Close' Podcast: NYG
Ross Jacobs: MIN
BAL at CIN (-9.5)
The Computer says: CIN by 10.9 (a 1.4 spread differential)
This was my best bet of the week, on Sunday night after the initial point spreads posted…where I got CIN -5.5. That line has since ballooned to -9.5 with the QB injury news.
I think the narrative is simple -- the Bengals are arguably the best team in football and Baltimore is not…not close. So, I go with Burrow…like last year. The public does not treat CIN/Burrow like they (over)do KC/Mahomes.
Chris 'Bet The Close' Podcast: CIN *BEST BET*
Ross Jacobs: CIN
DAL (-2.5) at TB
The Computer says: DAL by 2.9 (a 0.4 spread differential)
Dallas is becoming a Jekyll and Hyde team…they play a good game and it gets you to wondering if they could win a Super Bowl and then they play a terrible game and it makes you wonder why the league doesn't take the team away from Jerry Jones.
But Tampa? It's all Jekyll…or whichever one was the bad one, I don't know -- I never read the book…but you get the point. I have not seen TB play well since like Week 1. Dallas I've seen toggle good-bad all season…but more good than bad overall, more bad recently.
I'll take the better team in a very shaky situation, I'll take Dallas and the points. I just do not believe in Tampa/Brady-22 and their 4-12-1 ATS record this year tells you all you need to know.
Chris 'Bet The Close' Podcast: TB
Ross Jacobs: DAL *BEST BET*
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The way The Computer projects the 2022-23 playoffs…
AFC
BUF def. MIA
CIN def. BAL
JAX def. LAC
CIN def. BUF
KC def. JAX
CIN def. KC
NFC
SF def. SEA
MIN def. NYG (possible flip to NYG if Adoree back)
DAL def. TB
SF def. MIN
PHI def. DAL
SF def. PHI
Super Bowl:
CIN def. SF
