A Fantasy and Handicapping look at the 2022-23 Wild Card Playoffs
I'm going through every game (in this report) this week as a bettor of the game, but also noting prop bets (and thus DFS names) I'm placing with my reasoning.
Our 2+ hour Video show/discussion of all the playoff games from a betting and Fantasy perspective is posted on-demand on Twitch… Link to show: https://www.twitch.tv/videos/1705702116
Our PPG positional FF scoring projections boards have been posted and will update again Friday night: https://ffmetrics.com/2241-2022-23-nfl-wild-card-playoff-round-fantasy-player-projections
The Computer model picks for this week will post later today, in our normal format recapping our betting/picks last week and showing the spread differentials and the different FFM expert picks on each game.
Here's my game-by-game snapshot of the wild card week…
Seattle at San Francisco (-9.5)
I'm playing this one straight, hitting it right down the fairway…
The 49ers are as good a team as there is in the NFL, winners of ten straight, and finally found 'their' QB…who is getting better as he goes. The 49ers are as healthy as they've been all season and Elijah Mitchell just came back. They are as hot as you can be right now in the NFL.
On the other hand, Seattle flopped into the playoffs with a (3-5) record in their last 8 games and two of the wins were lucky/close wins over the Rams…games they should've lost.
To me, this is a classic blowout where the 49ers may rush for 200-300 yards combined against the #30 run defense in the league NOW minus their best linebacker (Brooks) in a convincing 15+ point win. An expected steady rain throughout only helps the run game narrative that heavily favors SF.
From a Fantasy/DFS/Prop perspective…
I like the run game of SF to dominate here. CMC we all know, but I like the props on Elijah Mitchell OVER 38.5 yards (FD) *Now, it's up to 40+ since I took note of this a few days prior. And if San Fran is gonna run over Seattle…it's pressure on the 49ers passing game to hit any 'OVERS' just because of the lower needed volume. I don't like any of the SF passing game 'overs' except George Kittle's.
The Seattle WRs should be fine. They both did well/decent in the SF last matchup. And if Seattle gets down fast and by multiple scores, Geno will have to throw quite a bit. The 49ers have such a tough defense I don't have a lot of confidence in the Seattle WR/QB 'OVERS' but it would be my lean.
Colby Parkinson to go OVER 18.5 yards on DK is interesting for a prop play…he's been over 35+ yards three straight games since Will Dissly went out, but the 49ers are so tough on the TE.
Andrew DFS likes Elijah Mitchell as a cheap DFS sleeper play as well.
LA Chargers (-2.5) at Jacksonville
I think the Chargers are one of the biggest frauds in the NFL right now. They won five of 6 games to the finish, Weeks 13-18, to roll into the playoffs. Beating all teams who had terrible QBs, injured QBs, etc. The Chargers are a bottom 10 in the NFL team, due to a bottom 3 coaching staff, and they rode a fortuitous schedule late to the wild card or this staff was gonna get swept out for Sean Payton to come in (and they still might). They have one quality win (win over a playoff team or .500+ team) all season…beating Miami (who barely got into the playoffs) in Week 14 in a game where Tua played his worst game of the season, and still the Chargers only won by one score.
The Chargers tried to beat Denver Week 18, using their starters, for reasons that defy all logic, and they got stomped by awful Denver -- that's who the Chargers are.
Jacksonville, on the other hand, isn't great…but they are good and have been beating playoff teams and good and decent teams since Week 9 (winners of seven of their last 9). The Jags are playing very good football and are superbly coached, unlike LAC (coaching-wise). Jacksonville already mopped up the floor with the Chargers back in Week 3. The Jags are arguably the best bet of the wild card rounds…they are clearly superior to the Chargers, but on any given Sunday… Especially with Justin Herbert…
I think this one is clear…one team is playing and winning tough matchups and looking solid/gritty doing it (JAX) and the other is fraudulently beating weak teams and losing to even weaker teams along the way (LAC). I take that raucous home Jacksonville crowd for the outright win.
From a Fantasy/DFS/Prop perspective…
I don't see anything too out of the ordinary to pounce on. I am looking at placing small/throw away bets on Donald Parham +700 (FD) to score an anytime-TD, as well as Jamal Agnew at +750.
I'm looking at another small bet on Keenan Allen to beat his 74.5 OVER (DK) yardage prop…potentially with (likely) no Mike Williams, but even if he plays Herbert is wearing out Allen the last few weeks and most likely will do more of the same this game…but note the Jacksonville corners are really coming on -- but Allen has been beating all his coverage of late, he's about impossible to stop with his excellent route running.
I might fling a few fun bucks on Evan Engram and Zay Jones yardage overs, but usually when I cozy up to them…that's when Christian Kirk arises (and vice-versa).
Andrew DFS is looking at Evan Engram value for DFS with his price down as his hot numbers have cooled the last two weeks. And he likes the DFS value on Josh Palmer if Big Mike is ruled out.
Miami at Buffalo (-13.5)
First, let me say…Skylar Thompson isn't as bad as he's being made out to be. He and Brock Purdy really stood out this preseason, among the rookie QB shocks we saw in August…on how ready they already are for the NFL. But Skylar has not been as instantly 'wow' as Purdy in the regular season…and it's asking a lot for him to go to Buffalo without Terron Armstead and try and win this game.
The last time these two played, Tua was starting to crack, but Miami still played right with Buffalo…tied to the end where Buffalo one on a game-ending field goal. Miami could find a way to keep this close by doing what they did last time to Buffalo…ran it on them. Miami could modify the game plan to stay safe and run a ton and small ball Tyreek (and Waddle) a ton and let them try and go win the game. We might see a shock amount and new styles of touches for Tyreek this week -- knowing the NFL…Miami will just play a normal/safe game and get beat humbly, but I have some modicum of hope for the very desperate Mike McDaniel.
I'm not betting this seriously, but the bigger the spread gets…the more interested I am in a fun small bet on Miami. Reality is: Buffalo is set to stomp them, it's just gonna be if they can cover a big number with Miami trying to play four-corners…and possessing Tyreek.
From a Fantasy/DFS/Prop perspective…
The prop bets are weak here because Miami doesn't have any single player props for rush or rec. due to the QB situation. BUT I am spreading around a bunch of options on Dawson Knox in this game. Knox to go OVER 32.5 yards and OVER 3.5 catches (FD), and Alternate Rec. yards special prop…Knox 50+ yards for +225 (FD), 70+ yards for +550 and 80+ yards for +850.
Knox blistered Miami Week 15 for his best game of the season (6-98-1/8).
Knox and Gilliam and Morris combined for (8-69-0/8) against Miami Week 3.
Week 16 MIA v. GB, and the Packers, who don't usually use the TE much, had three TEs combined for (4-49-1/5) against Miami.
Week 17, Hunter Henry put up a good game, for him, (5-52-0/6) against Miami.
Week 12, Houston combined up for (7-81-1/9) against Miami.
Mark Andrews Week 2 (9-104-1/11). H Hurst/Wilcox Week 4 vs. MIA (4-45-1/5). Pat Freiermuth Week 7 went for (8-75-0/9).
Andrew DFS likes Jeff Wilson to be a great value in DFS leagues this weekend, and he likes the Knox value as well.
NY Giants vs. Minnesota (-3.0)
I'm probably with the rest of our group 'feelings' here…
I'm so unimpressed with Minnesota of late (and as the injuries mount) that it's pushing me to NYG, and then I 'feel' like that is a bad way to bet -- 'with the crowd'.
However, our computer models say that right now with all the injuries hitting Minnesota the last few weeks and the possible return of Adoree Jackson for NYG, and as well as the Giants are playing -- the Giants might win that game (NYG should be/could've been 3-0 in their last three meaningful games, not 2-1). At least the G-Men are probably worth taking the +3.0 on.
I hate to be 'same as everyone', but I analyze Minnesota's 2022 season and they are definitely one of the luckiest teams in recent memory. A couple of their losses have been bad/awful, and their wins defy logic. Allowing Indy, maybe the single worst team in the league, a 33-0 head start a few weeks ago…that game is known more for the epic comeback, but I still can't fathom how Indy scored 33 points against them in a half.
Minnesota is so banged up compared to earlier in the season. I think NYG is coming into their own on the O-Line and D-Line, that they now have the edge on both sides of the line in this game. I have a bunch of football and data reasons FOR taking NYG in this game…but then the Vikings just magically win every game somehow is the offset.
It's a 50-50 game call for my gut. The Computer says NYG is now better. Home field in Minnesota matters. It could come down to, for me, Adoree Jackson. If he fully practices and plays, then I will go with NYG to outright win. If Jackson is out, then less confident and probably take the points in a 'shoulder shrug' with Minn. to win.
From a Fantasy/DFS/Prop perspective…
Richie James had 8 catches for 90 yards in their last matchup…and James has been the hottest WR for NYG for several weeks. I think James is a high-probability WR1 projection here. I like the prop bet of James OVER 4.5 receptions and 47.5 yards a lot.
Isaiah Hodgins may go 'over' as well. He produced an 8-89-1/12 line in their Week 16 games…but that was an outlier from Hodgins' norm. Hodgins has been a TD maker…but usually with a lower 4 catch, 40+ yard tally to go with.
Saquon Barkley had a season high 8 catches in their Week 16 matchup with Minnesota, but game flow played into that…but could again.
Dalvin Cook has 2 rushing TDs in his last 8 games. Hasn't rushed for 100+ in 8 games. Cook hasn't been all that great for Kevin O'Connell. Cook is also a little questionable after his Week 18 injury…but appears good-to-go but hasn't been great this season.
Cook's 'meh' Week 16 run game output led to a Justin Jefferson (12-133-1/16) explosion, but that's not shocking. But the T.J. Hockenson (13-109-2/16) was more shocking…Minnesota hit NYG where it hurt -- covering the TE. I don't see why they won't go there again this week. The Hockenson OVER 47.5 yards on DK (-110) doesn't look bad at all here.
Baltimore at Cincinnati (-9.5)
Early in the week, I wrote: I like the bets on SF laying the points and Jacksonville to win outright, but I think Cincinnati is the best bet of the wild card week at -5.5/6.0. People will not allow for the possibility/fact that the Bengals are the best team in the NFL, for a second year in a row.
I don't care if Lamar Jackson is back or not, but I'd prefer it if he were not back -- but the Bengals are simply the best team in football. For two years running they played their best ball in the playoff stretch. They went (8-0) to finish the season Winners of 10 of their last 11 games. They are 12-5-0 against the spread this season…because the media, and thus the people do not believe.
The media/masses also do not believe that the Bengals have had a top 10 defense the past two seasons. They never get talked about. This top-tier coaching staff never gets talked about.
The Ravens did beat Cincy Week 5, on a field goal at the buzzer. Cincy is a different team since early in the season…a (2-3) start with O-Line issues and a (10-1) finish with one of the lower sacks allowed counts in the league for the full season…
6.5 sacks allowed per game in their (0-2) start.
2.1 sacks allowed per game the rest of the season.
Cincy finished top 7 in points scored and allowed (defense) this season.
The Ravens are decent, scrappy…don't have a prayer with Tyler Huntley, do have a prayer with Lamar…but the Bengals are just a better team regardless. Just one of the Ravens 10 wins on the season came against a playoff team (Week 5 vs. CIN).
The Ravens have really stepped up in pass defense (playing bad QBs mostly) but have started to falter against the run at the same time (three 100+ yard games allowed Weeks 15-17…including 198 to the Steelers). Cincy can beat them either way they want to go. The Ravens pass defense improvement has come from facing (since Wk9) Dalton-Baker-Trevor-Russ-Pickett-Watson-Ridder-Pickett and Cincy Week 18 vanilla…and Trevor torched them in that group.
I like Cincy here to win and then run to the Super Bowl.
Later in the week I now write: Well…now Huntley is questionable, and Lamar is all but out…and the line is up to -9.5. I still like it, but I love my -5.5 early grab better!
I still believe the Bengals are the best team in the NFL two years running and are out to go get the crown the refs stole from them late game last Super Bowl.
From a Fantasy/DFS/Prop perspective…
The Ravens props are mostly on hold due to the QB situation in flux. I don't really love any props here. Joe Mixon OVER 57.5 is something to consider, but not too seriously…the Ravens have been getting beat up lately vs. the run.
Andrew DFS likes Burrow-Chase stack…and he has the same worries I do about Tee Higgins from his rough post-Hamlin game performance.
Dallas (-2.5) at Tampa Bay
2-3+ weeks ago I was thinking about this likely matchup and craving to bet against the Bucs. I think Tampa Bay is one of the top 10 worst teams in the NFL…partly due to all their O-Line injuries, partly due to their coaching staff. Tampa Bay should not be in the playoffs. They barely scraped by to get to (8-9) to win the trash heap NFC South.
The Vegas line setters and public LOVE Tampa Bay because of Tom Brady and the perpetual 'you know they'll click it in at some point' fairy tale they keep telling themselves. There's a reason why the Bucs were dead last against the spread this season (4-12-1)…(2-12-1) since Week 3. I want to bet against Tampa Bay here/in general…and have for many weeks in 2022 season.
The problem with being so anti-TB is…the Dallas Cowboys are collapsing at the same time. Dallas got embarrassed by Washington Week 18. They barely pulled away from Tennessee Week 17, when the Titans had pre-thrown in the towel going into that game. They barely beat the Minshew-led Eagles Week 16. They blew a huge lead Week 15 to Jacksonville, and then ended up losing in OT. Week 14, they were losing to Houston until the final minutes.
I'm going to go with Dallas as a small bet because as bad as Dallas has been, Tampa is worse. Dallas has the thing that can ruin Tampa -- a top pass rush. By contrast, the Bucs have allowed the least amount of sacks this year, but that's because Brady is so jumpy in the pocket now, due to the injured/corrupt O-Line, that he throws it way before the pass rush can touch him…and he is throwing off-the-mark/guess-passing and hoping they land…or taking safe dump passes to the RBs. It's not really working because the Bucs are 25th in scoring this 2022 season. Dallas is #4 in scoring.
I have not watched a game this year, since Week 1, where I was somewhat impressed with Tampa Bay. Dallas has the better team and if they reel in a different game plan, have a safer game plan for Dak and his sudden passing deficiencies, they can quietly put Tampa Bay away -- because Tampa has the same tired plan every week…let Brady throw all he wants and then try to get slowed-way-down Leonard Fournette going.
From a Fantasy/DFS/Prop perspective…
I put some small token bets on Rachaad White across the board on prop bets…over 19.5 yards receiving, which could be a gimme if TB gets down (as they do) and has to chase back with a lot of Brady dump passes. I also took the OVER on 35.5 yards rushing, hoping TB gets desperate and rides their best RB. I also took a small bite on the alternative props on FD…80+ rushing yards at +850.
So, I'll be watching this game with one focus…Rachaad White in the game and wanting him to get every touch…or bellyaching when he's out at any time for Fournette.
Andrew DFS likes Chris Godwin for DFS from this game and HATES Leonard Fournette for his high ownership% on top of underperformance potential.
Projecting the entire playoff brackets and naming our Super Bowl matchup/winner will be posted on the report to follow later today (our usual 'All Picks ATS' report) -- the official Computer model picks and spread differentials.
Good luck with all your betting and Fantasy this week!
