2022 Week 17 Game Recap: Jaguars 31, Texans 3 (by Ross Jacobs)
There's basically nothing to say about this game. It was out of reach for the Texans very quickly and they never remotely threatened the Jaguars who are suddenly in the playoff race going into week 18 with a very real chance to make it. They now lead the AFC South by 1 game and likely need to beat the Titans this week to hold on for a division title and the #4 seed. If they lose it's possible they can still get a wildcard but they would need a healthy helping of luck. They have won their last 4 games and are big favorites in Vegas this week over the massively struggling Titans. Somehow, someway it looks like the Jaguars are going to win their awful division in Doug Pederson's first year. They've come a long way in just one year and the future probably looks very hopeful to fans. I have my doubts about their potential future success and I'm sure everyone can guess why that is...
I don't know what else to say about the Texans at this point. I thought it was obvious coming into the year that they were still the least talented roster in the league and would struggle to win 4 games despite their improvements on paper. They simply had too many holes on a roster that had been decaying for years. The worst part for Houston though? They might not even get the #1 pick in the draft if they somehow beat the horrendous Colts this week and the Bears lose without Fields. That would be a sour end to a miserable season for Texans fans.
Assuming Houston does lock up the top pick, what are they going to do with it? The consensus view right now is that Bryce Young will be the pick. I can almost certainly guarantee that will not happen. First of all, there's no guarantee Houston even takes a QB. They could theoretically just ride with Mills for another season but they won't, fair or not. What is possible however is bringing in a veteran of some sort, perhaps Caserio's old buddy Jimmy G? Don't think it can't happen. This team still needs a ton of fresh talent, not just a QB. Throwing a rookie into this mess is liable to either get him killed or stunt his growth entirely.
Let's assume that Houston does in fact decide on one of the rookie QBs, why do I think it will be someone other than Bryce? The biggest knock on him is that he's tiny...5'10” 185 lbs from what I've heard. Kyler is the same height but he's 205 lbs. There is simply no comparison for how diminutive Young really is. And don't think the league is going to brush that off either. Kyler was a 4.4-4.5 runner that could escape danger easily. Young is mobile but nothing like that fast. Also Murray, Tua, and Wilson, the 3 shortest starting QBs in the league, are all currently hurt and dealing with injuries. The league is fully aware of this and will treat Young with high suspicion. Don't be surprised when Young is the 3rd or 4th QB off the board and not in the mix at the very top.
If it's not Young that leaves 3 candidates in my mind although two of the are more likely than the last option. The two obvious choices are CJ Stroud and Will Levis. Stroud is going to catch some flack for being the latest Ohio St QB, a group that has not performed particularly well as of late, but he has all the physical qualities you could ever want and does throw a beautiful ball. The question for Stroud is: can we work outside the very structured, QB-friendly Ohio St system?
RC was a fan of Levis last summer in our Devy scouting series. I didn't like what I saw, but I believe I may have jumped to conclusions a bit too quickly. Levis has fantastic physical traits, like a smaller Herbert or Allen, and a laser for an arm. He can drive the ball a mile with just a whip-like flick of his wrist. What Levis did not have going for him though is a decent team around him like Stroud or Young had. Instead he was saddled with an awful Kentucky offense around him and had to play SEC teams week in and week out. That's obviously going to make life much harder for a young QB. We'll study him more soon but there's a very real chance Levis will be in the mix for the top overall pick.
And that brings us to the final, and most unlikely option, Anthony Richardson of Florida. If you told me that one QB emerged from the 2023 class as a bona fide megastar, one of the best 5 QBs in the NFL a few years from now, I would have to assume it's Richardson. He has by far the highest ceiling of any QB from this class, one of the highest ceilings we have ever seen...if he can put it all together and continue developing. He's the best physical specimen we've seen at the position since Cam and supposedly is going to run a possible 4.4 at the combine at 230+ lbs. There are a lot of people saying he's extremely raw and while I'm still very early in the study phase, I don't think that's an accurate view.
Richardson clearly has work to do but he's also playing for a pretty weak team, much like Levis. Without Richardson Florida wouldn't have been competitive at all this year. And let's not forget that 3 of the current best 4 QBs in the league were all considered unrefined projects coming out of their respective drafts...Mahomes, Herbert, and Allen, all 3 had very real question marks to go along with supreme physical gifts. Richardson has as much ability as any of them. He just needs a little time and a good supporting cast to have a chance. I do think it's unlikely he goes #1 but in a class that has no obvious standout player at any position (even Jalen Carter and Will Anderson have some questions to answer), there is a world where Houston or another team gambles on the ceiling of Richardson at #1 the same way Carolina went for Cam.
Fantasy Player Notes:
– It's not really relevant but it dawned on me watching this game that Travis Etienne runs like a duck. Seriously. Go watch. You won't be able to unsee it now that I've pointed it out. He's still plenty fast though. Etienne is one of my better calls from this season. I thought he would dispatch with a greatly diminished James Robinson and he did. It was a nice season for Etienne and I know many people are super high on him for next year, but I will bet you anything that Jacksonville drafts a power runner in the 2nd or 3rd round of this draft to throw cold water all over the Etienne hype train. If you have him in Dynasty, prepare accordingly. Pederson did the same thing multiple times with the Eagles. He wants the thunder to Etienne's lightning.
– It was a very up and down year but suddenly Evan Engram is the TE5 in ppr leagues heading into the final week. There were a lot of duds but if you stuck with him he rewarded you with a couple of monster weeks too. Hopefully that will even out a bit next year. He'll be firmly in the TE1 conversation again in 2023 and hopefully a lot of FFM'ers stashed him for basically nothing on RC's recommendation this past year.
– I hinted above that I was concerned for Jacksonville's future because of one player and everyone knows I'm talking about golden boy Trevor Lawrence. He's always been the media's darling and their recent success has everyone thinking that the Lawrence story is back on track...he just needed Pederson to bring it out but now Lawrence is destined to be a top 5 QB and a future Hall of Famer...yep don't ya know it...
I see problems with that theory. First of all, RC doesn't miss on QBs very often and when he does it's not by much. He's pointed out the problems with Lawrence for years now and those issues aren't going away. I watched Lawrence closely here against a weak Houston defense and I was highly unimpressed. He ran the quick passing game plan well enough I suppose but there is still a ton of no-read, predetermined throws to his game. You rarely see Lawrence working through a progression and that causes him to blindly throw some idiotic passes that could easily be intercepted. Here he nearly had 2 more but they were dropped or the defender just missed snatching it. He also has a consistent issue throwing too high. I tallied 4 passes this game that he just totally airmailed over his receiver, a few of them completely wide open. It's not a huge issue really but it's strange for a supposed generational QB.
My opinion is that Lawrence is still a slightly different version of Carson Wentz. Big guys who can move around, have strong arms and can come up with some highlight level throws, but are far too inconsistent to make it in this league for long. Pederson had Wentz in the MVP conversation early in his career but that ship sailed shortly after and Wentz has been on a downward trajectory for years. I think Lawrence is in very real danger of following the same path.
*RC NOTE: We will be discussing Lawrence-Fields and the enigma QB class of 2021, in detail, and my scouting of it…and if it’s gone wrong, or what has happened…all coming up in the offseason.
– In my personal opinion, and RC may be the only other human to share this opinion with me (if he even does still), but I think Davis Mills is a superior QB right this second to Lawrence. I don't give a damn about their records or their stats or draft status or any of that. Mills is working with an atrocious situation, with absolutely no help on offense. To put things in perspective, the 3rd and 4th receivers for Jacksonville are Marvin Jones and Jamaal Agnew and they are better than Houston's best receiver Brandin Cooks at this point. Backup TE's Arnold and Manhertz are both better than any of the Houston guys. Every single Jacksonville lineman is better than their counterparts on Houston except perhaps Tunsil. Jacksonville took out Lawrence and most of the starters in the 3rd quarter and they were still as good or better than Houston on offense.
My point is Mills isn't going to get a fair shake. We've seen this a million times and I really hate it for Mills. I've watched him a lot this year and RC was absolutely correct before the season: Mills is really a very solid QB. He maneuvers in the pocket better than Lawrence, his arm is just as strong and actually more accurate in my opinion, he can throw on the run, and even showed off a level of athleticism I didn't think he had scrambling around in this game. He works his progressions like a vet. All of this while he's under pressure every other snap with receivers that can't get open, no running game...things that Lawrence doesn't have to deal with. Mills will either compete with a veteran for the job next year, which he is liable to lose because no coach is going to think he's better than the expensive player they brought in, or he'll lose it to a highly drafted rookie that gets the job by default. Mills will either be traded or eventually cut and bounce around the league as Foles-esque backup, one of the best backups in the league.
RC NOTE: My simple statement would be, if you flipped Lawrence to the 2022 Texans and Mills to the 2022 Jaguars, we would be talking about Mills as an emerging star…and Lawrence would be in the ‘overrated/concerned’ category.
IDP Notes:
– Ok it's beyond official, Jalen Pitre is a complete stud. 12+ tackles in 4 of his last 5 games. 3 INTs in his last 5 games. I noted the change a few weeks back when they started allowing him to play deep and move forward in attack mode instead of playing up around the line of scrimmage. He looks so much better when he can read and react with everything in front of him. Fantastic young player. He's going to be a Texan for a long time.
