2022 Week 16: Vikings 27, Giants 24 (Dynasty/Fantasy Analysis Game Report)
*Weeks 16-17 game week, the game reports will be shortened a bit on some of them to discussing/quick hitting on just the critical facts from the rewatch studies so we can spend more time on looking at the tape of last week’s games for projections prep and sleeper finds this critical FF playoff week/s.
The Giants had their chances in this game. From my viewpoint, I don’t see a big difference between the two teams in their current iteration/injury statuses/starters. Both good, not great.
The two teams played this game pretty even. Minnesota holding a lead most of the game. NYG turning it over or dropping easy passes on Minnesota’s side of the field a couple times ruining drives too often. Then it came down to a career long 61-yard FG at the buzzer for the Vikings to escape with another close, shocking win.
The Vikings are (12-3) and still in the hunt for the #1 seed, and worst case holding on to the #2 seed so they can have homefield vs. SF in the 2nd-round if it comes down to it.
The Giants are now (8-6-1), one win away from clinching a playoff spot…and likely to get that win vs. Indy in Week 17. NYG should be the #6 seed, and with a Week 17 win they can rest starters Week 18, if they want.
*Note any fractional numbers in parentheses (4/2) or (2/3), etc., are a ‘split’ stat on our definition of a ‘quality start’ (or not) marker on a player -- using 14 PPR points in a game for RB-WR-TE and 21 for a QB…point levels that are good/productive/well above average starts for a Fantasy week. Trying to identify trends, consistency (or not) in players we might not normally realize.
A (3/2), for example, means: 3 times the player hit at/above the mark, and 2 times they did not.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Daniel Jones (30-42 for 334 yards, 1 TD/1 INT) has thrown the ball 40+ times in a game twice this season, which produced his only two 300+ yard passing games. It happened in Week 11 getting thumped by Detroit and trying to stay in the game and this Week 16 game, against a terrible Vikings pass defense. These types of game outputs are not normal for Jones. The typical DJ game is 30 +/- pass attempts, 150-225 yards passing, and 0-1 TD passes.
I mention this for three reasons…
1) The Vikings secondary/pass coverage is really dying. Aaron Rodgers is set to have his best game of the 2022 season against them in Week 17.
2) Jones’s output/attempts are likely to go back to ‘lower’ when they face a good pass defense in Indy, but also because it will be a game they will likely control early and play safe to get the win.
3) If #2 is true, then the flashy NYG WR output from this game…it’s a blip not likely to happen Week 17 v. Indy.
-- Let’s go through the NYG WRs in the order of what I see them having for output Week 17…
1) Richie James (8-90-0/11) is the most likely producer for PPR Week 17…6+ catches, 40-60 yards, a chance at a TD.
James works the slot role and Indy is susceptible there. Plus, James working short is Jones’s easiest throw…which is what he likes best, and what an early lead might call for versus Indy as the game unfolds.
James’s last 6 games: 5.0 rec. (6.3 targets), 50.3 yards, 0.50 TDs per game.
James’s last 3 games: 6.7 rec. (8.3 targets), 64.3 yards, 0.33 TDs per game.
James is becoming an easy go-to for Jones…and James also dropped two wide-open easy tosses over the middle, or he would have had a 10 catch, 100+ yard game here that would have really lit up FF owners chasing him off waivers or considering starting him Week 17…and would have won the game potentially, for the Giants, as one of the drops was a huge 3rd-down conversion drop.
2) Isaiah Hodgins (8-89-1/12) is becoming the TD guy for DJ. Three games with a TD in his last 4 games. A great output tally here, but if you set this game aside as an aberration due to Minnesota’s issues, and you look at Hodgins’s last three games as he started to rise…it doesn’t look great/awesome (but is good), aside from the TDs.
Hodgins Weeks 13-15: 4.3 rec. (5.3 targets), 39.7 yards, 0.67 TD per game
If Hodgins doesn’t score a TD…he’s a PPR WR3/4 type WR.
3) Darius Slayton (4-79-0/6) is their best WR talent, but also the guy that gets covered with the top CBs…and that will be tough Stephon Gilmore in Week 17. Slayton looks nice on tape, but he hasn’t scored a TD in 6 games. He’s working in a range of 3-5 catches (6-8 targets), 40-80 yards with no TDs in most games of his. He’s a WR2/3 at best the past six weeks. He has the toughest matchup (Gilmore) of the NYG WRs Week 17.
My Week 17 money would be on James (PPR)…or Hodgins (NonPPR), more than Slayton, this Week 17 vs. Indy.
-- Kirk Cousins (34-48 for 299 yards, 3 TDs/0 INTs) has been great for FF the past three weeks. Nothing has changed recently except the game flows…caused, somewhat, by the dying Vikings defense, so Minnesota is constantly chasing offense…which is awesome for Cousins for FF.
Cousins has 9 TD passes and two 400+ yard games the past three weeks. Will it keep up with a game at Green Bay Week 17? It might not if Minnesota gets up with a lead and can sit on it, but the problem is Minnesota cannot hold a normal lead or sit on it, because their defense has died so bad the past month. No lead is safe for the Vikings. So, if the Vikings get up…Green Bay will get right back in it (good for Rodgers & Friends) all game. If Green Bay gets out fast…then Cousins will be chasing back in through the air.
-- When Minnesota has to score, like they have the past few weeks, it’s Justin Jefferson (12-133-1/16) going off and either the other WRs, K.J. Osborn (3-17-0/4) and/or Adam Thielen (1-6-0/5)…OR T.J. Hockenson (13-109-2/16).
You can see which side of that coin won out in this game. The WRs won it the prior game with huge numbers in that Indy historic comeback. TJH was huge the following week/this game.
The Giants are a good matchup for opposing TEs to put up numbers, thus TJH goes crazy here with the right game script. Can Indy/Jelani take advantage Week 17? It’s shaky because Nick Foles looks so bad and the new Indy staff never game plans for these things/advantages.
-- Greg Joseph hit 2/2 FGs including the 61-yarder, 3/3 on XPs. He’s been an up-and-down/solid enough kicker…but one you want more kicking in a dome, like he has the past five weeks. This upcoming week, Week 17, it’s outdoors at one of the worst places for kickers to kick…at Lambeau. Be careful with Joseph this week. He’s not bad (good offensive game expected) but he’s not optimal kicking there.
-- The NYG-DST hasn’t been great lately, since they got their secondary all injured but they’ve been playing OK in good matchups and getting pushed around in bad matchups/vs. good+ QBs, but Week 17 is against arguably the worst offense with the worst QB in the league. I’m all-in on NYG-DST Week 17.
A typical game is a DST getting 1-2 sacks and hitting the QB 4-7 times. Less than that is a bad game, tougher opponent (usually) and more than those levels gets to show a good or great performance by the defense (and/or a bad offense opposing them).
The last three games of Indy allowed sacks and QB hits…
Week 13 v. DAL (Ryan): 3 sacks, 7 QB hits
Week 15 v. MIN (Ryan): 3 sacks, 7 QB hits
Week 16 v. LAC (Foles): 7 sacks, 9 QB hits
Ryan was so scared he was throwing the ball early to avoid sacks. Foles is tougher and paid for it taking on 7 sacks, not throwing the ball away scared as much. NYG will be the best pressure front Indy will have faced in recent weeks. I bet NYG goes for 5+ sacks, which should cause at least one INT and one lost fumble…but might be 2-3-4 picks.
Snap Counts of Interest:
68 = Slayton
67 = Hodgins
57 = Richie James
72 = J Jefferson
66 = Thielen
50 = KJ Osborn
