2022 Week 16 NFL Handicapping: All Picks ATS and Survivor Pool Pick
I said, last week in the intro, I didn't like the lines/week in general…and I also felt like, because of it, and because of the hot streak, I was gonna be due for a fall from grace pick week -- and it happened. It ended up not as bad as I feared, but bad for the white-hot run we've been on. Week 15 resulted in a (8-8)/.500 overall ATS week, a losing B5 week (2-3), and lost my Best Bet (Dallas) for the first time in a while.
I feel better about this week…I like a lot of the lines this week, and our top games. Let's get back to HOT!
Good luck with your picks this week!
Week 15 results…
FFM All picks straight up: 12-4
FFM ATS: 8-8
FFM Best Bet: 0-1
FFM Blazing Five (no TNF): 2-3
FFM Calling a dog for an outright win: 0-1
Chris ATS: 7-9
Ross ATS: 8-8
Chris Best Bet: 1-0
Ross Best Bet: 1-0
When All 3 analysts agree: 3-3
When both analysts disagree with my pick: 3-2, for me
FFM Survivor: MIN(W)
Chris Survivor: XXX
Ross Survivor: NO(W)
All Underdogs ATS = 8-8
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YTD results…
All picks straight up: 157-75-2
ATS: 134-86-4 (60.9%)
Best Bet: 10-5
Blazing Five (no TNF): 46-27-2 (63.0%)
Calling a dog for an outright win: 18-12
Chris ATS: 134-86-4
Ross ATS: 112-108-4
Chris Best Bet: 10-5
Ross Best Bet: 8-7
When All 3 analysts agree: 55-28-1
When both analysts disagree with my pick: 25-19, for me
FFM Survivor: BAL(W), BUF(W), LAC(L), PHI(W), TB(W), CIN(W), KC(W), MIA(W), ATL(L), NO(W), DAL(W), SEA(W), SF(W), MIN(W)
Chris Survivor: BAL(W), GB(W), LAC(L), PHI(W), TB(W), LAR(W), CIN(W), DAL(W), BUF(L), TEN(W), SF(W), XXXXX
Ross Survivor: DEN(L), XXX, BUF (L), GB(W), PHI(W), SF(L), LV(W), DAL(W), TB(W), KC(W), BAL(W), MIA(W), SEA(W), CIN(W), NO(W)
All Underdogs ATS = 119-101-4
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Week 16 Picks….
*Ross picks to come…
DET (-2.5) at CAR
The Computer says: DET by 7.5 (a 5.5 spread differential)
The Lions are clearly the better team, and the Panthers are not good at all. The lack of respect for Detroit is still happening. Not as bad as a few weeks ago, but still the public won't allow themselves to believe the Lions are a top 10 NFL team. Let's keep taking advantage of that.
*FFM SURVIVOR PICK*
Chris 'Bet The Close' Podcast: CAR
Ross Jacobs:
CIN (-3.5) at NE
The Computer says: CIN by 8.7 (a 5.2 spread differential)
The Bengals are arguably the best team in football, and just like last season -- the public won't go there, they won't believe it…so, the line is always short of what it should be for Cincy. No respect. And for some reason the public still likes New England as if it's 2017…or like they have a great defense -- neither is true. Take the Bengals all day long, especially with Cincy possibly getting back two key defenders this week.
Chris 'Bet The Close' Podcast: NE
Ross Jacobs:
ATL at BAL (-8.0)
The Computer says: BAL by 3.5 (a 4.5 spread differential)
This will be two weak offenses led by run games trying to run at each other in a bitter cold environment. Take the heavy points. I cannot believe this point spread is so big with how poorly the Ravens have played for the past two months.
Chris 'Bet The Close' Podcast: BAL
Ross Jacobs:
TB (-7.5) at ARI
The Computer says: TB by 10.8 (a 3.3 spread differential)
Trace McSorley is the QB of the week/season to attack. A lot of backup QBs can fill-in fine, but not McSorley. This should be a blow out.
Chris 'Bet The Close' Podcast: ARI
Ross Jacobs:
LV at PIT (-2.5) *UNDERDOG OUTRIGHT WIN*
The Computer says: LV by 0.7 (a 3.2 spread differential)
The Raiders are better than the Steelers, so I'll take the points in a frigid game that I'd be fine if it's a Jacobs v. Najee event.
Chris 'Bet The Close' Podcast: PIT
Ross Jacobs:
BUF (-8.5) at CHI
The Computer says: BUF by 5.4 (a 3.1 spread differential)
Too many points for a game being played in super high winds and very negative 'feels like' temps. If this turns into a battle of the running QBs…I take Justin Fields.
Chris 'Bet The Close' Podcast: CHI
Ross Jacobs:
LAC (-4.5) at IND
The Computer says: LAC by 1.7 (a 2.8 spread differential)
Nick Foles is a curveball that we don't know what Nick has left in the tank, etc. But I live by one rule -- don't bet against Nick Foles.
Chris 'Bet The Close' Podcast: IND
Ross Jacobs:
GB at MIA (-3.5)
The Computer says: MIA by 6.2 (a 2.7 spread differential)
Miami is overdue for a snapback game/for a big win…and Green Bay is a great opponent to take advantage of.
Chris 'Bet The Close' Podcast: GB
Ross Jacobs:
NO at CLE (-2.5)
The Computer says: CLE by 0.4 (a 2.1 spread differential)
Regardless of any game facts…we're going with the points in these games where it's going to be bitter cold with high winds. Taysom Hill could change the game here.
Chris 'Bet The Close' Podcast: NO
Ross Jacobs:
HOU at TEN (-4.5)
The Computer says: TEN by 2.6 (a 1.9 spread differential)
I would not bet this for real because I fear a Malik Willis breakout moment…it's going to happen, whether in 2022 or 2023. But Houston has been so pesky, and the weather will be so cold…let's side with just taking the points.
Chris 'Bet The Close' Podcast: TEN
Ross Jacobs:
WSH at SF (-7.0)
The Computer says: SF by 8.4 (a 1.4 spread differential)
The 49ers are going to keep pressing to get to the #2 seed over Minnesota…they gotta get Minnesota out of any homefield advantage for the 2nd-round of the playoffs, assuming they meet, which is probable by seeding.
Chris 'Bet The Close' Podcast: WSH
Ross Jacobs:
PHI at DAL (-4.5)
The Computer says: DAL by 3.3 (a 1.2 spread differential)
If the Eagles played the 2022 season with Gardner Minshew, they'd still be a playoff team. So, if you're gonna give me points with them…I'll take it.
Chris 'Bet The Close' Podcast: PHI *BEST BET*
Ross Jacobs:
NYG at MIN (-4.0)
The Computer says: MIN by 3.0 (a 1.0 spread differential)
The Giants are too pesky to lay more than a field goal to. I wouldn't be surprised if NYG won this game.
Chris 'Bet The Close' Podcast: NYG
Ross Jacobs:
DEN (-2.5) at LAR
The Computer says: DEN by 1.9 (a 0.6 spread differential)
Two bad teams, so I'll just take the points with LAR.
Chris 'Bet The Close' Podcast: LAR
Ross Jacobs:
SEA at KC (-10.0)
The Computer says: KC by 9.5 (a 0.5 spread differential)
Frigid cold but no heavy winds. Still, not fertile grounds/conditions for a lot of offense…so, we'll take the points for a pick.
Chris 'Bet The Close' Podcast: SEA
Ross Jacobs:
JAX at NYJ (-1.5)
The Computer says: NYJ by 1.8 (a 0.3 spread differential)
Rain and cold favors the Jets style of play. Can't get too excited because of Zach Wilson at QB but I'll go with the shutdown defense in possible sloppy weather. Just a pick because I'm likely too biased here.
Chris 'Bet The Close' Podcast: NYJ
Ross Jacobs:
