2022 Week 12 Game Recap: Raiders 40, Seahawks 34 (By Ross Jacobs)
This was a back and forth affair by two decent but flawed teams. Both teams have decent offenses but bad defenses and that combined with multiple turnovers led to a shootout. Honestly, I think the Seahawks played slightly better here and are probably the better team, but the Raiders kept fighting and finally on their second possession in overtime, Josh Jacobs popped an untouched run straight up the gut for the winning score.
It's a feel-good moment for the Raiders and probably saved Josh McDaniels job for another week, but does it matter in the grand scheme of things? No. This is their 2nd overtime win in a row and they are still just 4-7, technically still alive for the playoffs but that's an unrealistic dream. If they get very, very lucky they could theoretically win their next 4 games to get to 8-7 but then they run into KC and SF the final two weeks. I just don't see how they get over that hump even if they could somehow run the table in December. I'm guessing they finish with 6, maybe 7 wins and it's anybody's guess what happens after that. Will McDaniels survive to coach another year? Maybe. His bloated contract might necessitate it.
But even if he does there's likely big changes coming for LV this off-season. I don't think Carr will be the QB next year, and I don't think McDaniels will want to rebuild with a rookie QB either, which doesn't leave a lot of options. There are no veteran free agents that are a clear upgrade over Carr, and the only thing that makes any sense at all to me is trying to trade for Aaron Rodgers, who looks like his time in Green Bay may finally be over. That's the only way they could keep Davante Adams happy if Carr is sent packing. All of this is pure speculation right now, but one way or another I do think things will look different in Vegas next year.
Tough loss for the Seahawks. They've had a magical year all things considered, from a team that most (including RC and I) thought would be among the league's worst to a team that is actually playing some good football and showing some promise for the future. They really lucked out with Geno Smith morphing into a solid QB. A lot of people have tried to give Seattle's management credit for trading Russ and keeping Geno knowing he was better, but remember, Geno wasn't even on the roster when they traded Russ. They signed him after the fact to compete with Drew Lock and even then Geno didn't lock down the starting job until right before the season started. So I don't think even the team expected him to play this well...I'm not sure even Geno knew he could play this well.
Regardless, it's been an impressive performance so far, but this loss might put the nail in the coffin for Seattle's playoff hopes. It certainly doesn't help. They fall to 6-5 but do have 4 very winnable games ahead (2x LAR, Car, and NYJ). At minimum they should get 3 more wins and finish with 9 wins but if they can get one more to 10 wins that would greatly help their chances. They'll be battling the NFC East teams for a wild card spot unless the 49ers collapse at the end.
Fantasy Player Notes:
– A quick word on Josh Jacobs who is apparently a god now for the media since he ran for over 200 yards...we all know that automatically qualifies you as a Hall of Famer and means he deserves a $10 million/year contract...
Jacobs had a nice 143 yard day on the ground with a TD before he popped the 86 yard run to end the game. It was a good fantasy day, but he literally got 1/3 of his yards on that one play and it came in overtime on a play where the defense was obviously tired and he was untouched. The previous 143 yards also came on 32 carries...4.5 ypc. That's not bad but it's nothing special either. Jacobs is not a great back. He's solid. And he's not suddenly going to start having 30+ point fantasy days every week now. I warned about this several weeks ago after he went on his first 3 games stretch of great games. Jacobs has a weird schedule this year where he has two stretches of fantastic matchups in a row. The first time he went for three straight monster games and I said he would do it again...and he is.
The past three weeks he's been over 20 points. He has one more great matchup this week against the Chargers. I expect he'll be over 20 points again and after that he might not crack the mark again. All the remaining run defenses are quite tough, although the Rams might suddenly be vulnerable without Aaron Donald.
The trade deadline is past for most leagues though so you probably can't trade him away outside of dynasty. If you have him in a dynasty league though, I advise to ride him the next two weeks then trade him away for as much as you can get while he's on top of the world. He's a free agent this next year and it is questionable whether the Raiders will bring him back. If they don't then he's likely going to a team that won't run him as much as McDaniels does, and if he stays, well, a lot of things can go wrong with RBs as we see every year. They are never a guarantee in fantasy, even the best ones, and Jacobs certainly is not one of the elites. He's been fortunate to get fed this year and he's been fortunate to have several sweet matchups against many of the league's worst run defenses. Trade him hot and enjoy the spoils.
– Kenneth Walker saved his fantasy day with 2 TDs. 14 carries for 26 yards outside of that and 10 for 17 last week...not a good trend. The problem I saw on tape was the middle of Seattle's offensive line getting pushed around. Andrew Billings was wrecking them and leaving Walker nowhere to go. I'm certainly worried about Walker now, but in most cases I'm probably still starting him for the time being. He's still the workhorse here and Pete Carroll wants to run the ball...I think they'll try and force the issue. The Rams without Donald (Seattle gets them too) and the Panthers are good spots to try and get the run going. The 49ers and Chiefs will be more difficult after that but maybe we'll have a new waiver wire option by then.
– Who is really the better Seattle receiver?
92 targets, 59 catches, 64.1% rate, 671 yards, 4 TDs = 2022 DK Metcalf
78 targets, 57 catches, 73.1% rate, 708 yards, 6 TDs = 2022 Tyler Lockett
Who is the better QB?
2802 yards, 19 TD/5 INT, 72.8% Comp, 6-5 record = 2022 Geno Smith
2730 yards, 18 TD/7 INT, 63.0% Comp, 4-7 record = 2022 Derek Carr
My eyes say Geno and the stats agree. I can't believe that might be true but it's hard to argue with the evidence. Geno is going to get a large contract extension this off-season. His level of play is wonderful when he's making just $3.5 million this year but I wonder what everyone will think when he's making $35 million a year like Carr...
IDP Notes:
– Jordyn Brooks and Cody Barton continue to light up the stat sheet with tackles. 16 and 12 respectively here. Brooks has 12+ in each of his last 3 games and has only been under 8 tackles once all year. Barton actually went through stretch of multiple games without doing much but he was in and out of the lineup too. When he's playing 70%+ of the snaps he usually produces nicely.
Brooks is getting a lot of Pro Bowl votes because of his monstrous tackle totals, but his level of play doesn't quite match the stat sheet. He's not a bad player by any means though and some defensive line help would go a long way. It's hard to play great ball at linebacker without some protection...unless you're Luke Kuechly.
– Seattle's defense isn't great in real life but they are actually streamable in fantasy with good matchups. The Rams qualify as a good matchup if you need a defense for the week.
Snap Counts of Interest:
77 = Adams
74 = Hollins
50 = Cole
77 = Moreau
61 = Jacobs
59 = Metcalf
57 = Lockett
29 = Goodwin
48 = Dissly
40 = Fant
46 = Walker
