DFS Shark Tank Week 9: Player/Stack/Avoid Pitch for the $1M+ Open Tournaments
I (RC) am going to play one DFS lineup in a $1M (min.) contest each week to try and take a dart throw at the big money to fund three things: (1) Myself, (2) FFM, (3) my favorite charity.
The odds of hitting on one entry in a giant pool is near impossible…but that’s the fun of it, the lottery dream of it.
My plan to make a lineup is going to be ‘the fun’ here. I, myself, do not functionally play DFS myself…I get submerged in Fantasy and scouting and questions and shows and writing, etc., all day every day. I’m not an expert in the salary and stack aspects, etc., so I’m going to do the smart thing -- lean on two people who are more expert in it than I.
There will be five inputs to make my FF lineup for the million (or bust)…
1) FFM’s Ross Jacobs, who is taking a deeper dive into the world of DFS this year.
2) Andrew Duhan…known to us as ‘Andrew DFS’…one of the most expert DFS sources that I know.
3) My wife, who knows nothing about football, is going to make one random pick at a position (probably like DST…or from a group of top options of the other positions.
4) I will pick one favorite play/player.
5) I will let Advanced Sports Logic’s ‘DFS Optimizer’, which uses FFM projections correlated to the salary and instantly/AI’s the best spends to fill out as many positions (or all positions) as needed. More info on the program and subscribing to the DFS Optimizer on the ‘Optimizer’ tab on the FFM homepage.
But I will begin each week by consulting with my two experts, who I’ve asked to pitch four concepts…
1) Their best ‘stack’ play, and why.
2) Their best mid-range salary player I should have in my lineup.
3) Their best cheapo play I should have in my lineup construction.
4) The bigger name/salary player I should avoid -- for either game logic or DFS ‘ownership %’ logic (and we’ll explain what that means).
The two DFS experts are going to pitch me (a la a Shark Tank type pitch) their concepts Saturday night on a group chat, which will be posted in full below -- so you can see their picks/plays and logic to consider for your own lineup constructions in DFS. I don’t know who they are gonna pitch until they pitch it…and I’ll react to it, and we’ll group discuss it. They also don’t know who the other might pitch -- they may end up with the same exact concept/player…they won’t know until the chat starts.
We haven’t practiced this ahead, I just laid out the generic concept and we’re about to see where it goes. Forgive any typos…and good luck with your DFS plays this week!
*** Because of the injury to RC, there was no chat this week…so, the experts submitted their plays independent of each other (and there’s a reason I emphasize that this week…).
Here’s some of their DFS wisdom for this week’s slate…
ANDREW DFS:
Stack of the week
Whenever deciding which QB to roll with for a stack play, it’s always a good idea to check the Vegas game totals. Two mainslate matchups have the highest over/under at 49.5: ATL vs LAC and DET vs GB. Both games are also two of the three mainslate games that will be played in a dome. Last week there were eight out of a total 11 games in a dome which could explain the higher scoring FF outputs.
The QB I’m rolling with this week is LAC QB Justin Herbert (D$7,200; 3-5% ownership projection). The Falcons secondary is still hampered with injuries as top CB AJ Terrell was ruled out yesterday and Casey Hayward is on IR. Keep in mind that the Falcons are coming off a tough overtime victory last week whereas the Chargers had a bye week. Herbert’s low ownership levels are depressed due to his top two WR targets being ruled out this week (Keenan Allen and Mike Williams). However, he gets a favorable matchup this week against a Falcons defense that allowed over 300 passing yards to CAR QB PJ Walker.
I would recommend stacking Herbert with WR Josh Palmer (D$5,100; 20-25%), TE Gerald Everett ($D4,800; 5-7%) and/or RB Austin Ekeler (D$8,800; 25-30%). WR Deandre Carter was a late addition to the injury report Friday (never a good sign) and is officially questionable. ATL WR Drake London, TE Kyle Pitts and RB Cordarrelle Patterson (expected back this week) are good “bring back” pieces that have low ownership projections.
Mid-range play
MIA RB Raheem Mostert (D$6,100; <5%) draws a favorable matchup this week against the Bears who traded their best defensive player Roquan Smith earlier this week. Even with Smith on the field, the Bears allowed DAL RB Tony Pollard to drop over 130 yards rushing along with 3 touchdowns. Although Mostert established himself as the lead back for the Dolphins, the team traded away backup RB Chase Edmonds as part of the deal that sent star LB Bradley Chubb to the Dolphins. Miami then made a trade for RB Jeff Wilson who may not be up to speed to get meaningful playing time this week which will further increase Mostert’s usage.
Cheap play of the week
A couple of cheap plays were listed as part of the QB stack dialogue. One player outside that matchup is CAR WR Terrance Marshall (D$3,900; <2%) who faces a Bengals secondary missing their top two corners. The Panthers other WR DJ Moore will draw the primary coverage of the Bengals defense which can free up Marshall. Another interesting factor in this game is that Marshall was one of CIN QB Joe Burrow’s WRs at LSU. Perhaps he’ll have a good game in front of his former college QB.
Chalk to avoid
Highly owned running backs have been crushing over the past few weeks. The cumulative ownership percentage of the DraftKings winning lineup for the Milly Maker competition has been much higher than historical. In general, chalky players don’t provide much upside in large pool competitions. That’s why I would fade NE RB Rhamondre Stevenson and JAX RB Travis Etienne as both players have an ownership projection of over 30%. Both have incredible matchups and upside, and I would definitely consider them in a smaller pool or cash competition. In a large pool I would take my chances and hope that one or both players have a subpar game, which will give a major edge on your competition.
ROSS JACOBS:
Favorite Stack:
I like going cheap at QB this week and loading up at other positions. A few that stand out: Rodgers, PJ Walker, and my favorite choice...Geno Smith. I cannot believe I'm typing those words but here we are.
Nobody has stopped Geno so far and I don't expect Arizona will suddenly be able to. There are two reasons I like Geno specifically. First, he has a decent chance at getting a little rushing production. He typically gets about 20 yards a game and while he only has 1 rushing TD on the year, he's likely to pick up a few more along the way considering how mobile he is. And the second reason is that he has all his skill position players as opposed to, say Rodgers, who might still be missing Lazard. Stack him with DK or Lockett (or both), Dissly as a secondary stack, and bring it back with Hopkins, the hottest WR in football.
Best Mid-Priced Option:
Rhamondre Stevenson. Rhamondre is ridiculously priced this week at only $6200. He's gone over 20 DraftKings points 5 times already this year including each of his last 4 and that's with Damien Harris playing in several of those games. Harris is out this week so that's even better. He's a great pivot off of Etienne who is only $100 more and should be very popular because he's been hyped up far more than the underrated Stevenson. Cordarrelle Patterson at $5800 against a terrible Chargers run defense is an easy second choice.
Best Cheap Option:
Alec Pierce at $4400. Pierce has been coming on strong in recent weeks and is so close to a huge breakout. This might finally be the week. His get-off is as good as any rookie in this class and he's going to torch someone soon for a long TD. NE rookie CB Jack Jones is a good player but he's a little bit slow and could have problems keeping up with the speedy Pierce.
