DFS Shark Tank Week 7: Player/Stack/Avoid Pitch for the $1M+ Open Tournaments
I (RC) am going to play one DFS lineup in a $1M (min.) contest each week to try and take a dart throw at the big money to fund three things: (1) Myself, (2) FFM, (3) my favorite charity.
The odds of hitting on one entry in a giant pool is near impossible…but that’s the fun of it, the lottery dream of it.
My plan to make a lineup is going to be ‘the fun’ here. I, myself, do not functionally play DFS myself…I get submerged in Fantasy and scouting and questions and shows and writing, etc., all day every day. I’m not an expert in the salary and stack aspects, etc., so I’m going to do the smart thing -- lean on two people who are more expert in it than I.
There will be five inputs to make my FF lineup for the million (or bust)…
1) FFM’s Ross Jacobs, who is taking a deeper dive into the world of DFS this year.
2) Andrew Duhan…known to us as ‘Andrew DFS’…one of the most expert DFS sources that I know.
3) My wife, who knows nothing about football, is going to make one random pick at a position (probably like DST…or from a group of top options of the other positions.
4) I will pick one favorite play/player.
5) I will let Advanced Sports Logic’s ‘DFS Optimizer’, which uses FFM projections correlated to the salary and instantly/AI’s the best spends to fill out as many positions (or all positions) as needed. More info on the program and subscribing to the DFS Optimizer on the ‘Optimizer’ tab on the FFM homepage.
But I will begin each week by consulting with my two experts, who I’ve asked to pitch four concepts…
1) Their best ‘stack’ play, and why.
2) Their best mid-range salary player I should have in my lineup.
3) Their best cheapo play I should have in my lineup construction.
4) The bigger name/salary player I should avoid -- for either game logic or DFS ‘ownership %’ logic (and we’ll explain what that means).
The two DFS experts are going to pitch me (a la a Shark Tank type pitch) their concepts Saturday night on a group chat, which will be posted in full below -- so you can see their picks/plays and logic to consider for your own lineup constructions in DFS. I don’t know who they are gonna pitch until they pitch it…and I’ll react to it, and we’ll group discuss it. They also don’t know who the other might pitch -- they may end up with the same exact concept/player…they won’t know until the chat starts.
We haven’t practiced this ahead, I just laid out the generic concept and we’re about to see where it goes. Forgive any typos…and good luck with your DFS plays this week!
*** Because of the injury to RC, there was no chat this week…so, the experts submitted their plays independent of each other (and there’s a reason I emphasize that this week…).
Here’s some of their DFS wisdom for this week’s slate…
ANDREW DFS:
Stack of the week
For a third week in a row, I’m rolling with Thomas Edward Patrick Brady, Jr. (D$ 6,300). There is no logical explanation for his low output last week against a Steelers secondary with practice squad level talent. The silver lining from getting crushed by Brady last week is his low ownership projection for Week 7.
The Bucs will take on a demoralized Panthers squad that just traded their best player to SF. I would consider pairing Brady with Mike Evans (D$ 6,900), Chris Godwin (D$ 6,300), or Cade Otton (D$ 2,700).
Evans is the least chalky play of the trio; both he and Brady have a projected ownership of 6-7%. There is definitely a risk that this game gets out of hand early and leads to an unfavorable game script (especially given an upcoming TNF game with Baltimore); however, I’m willing to bet that the Bucs will use this game as an opportunity to restore their confidence.
Mid-range play
NYJ RB Breece Hall (D$6,200) is facing a Denver defense that is coming off a short week and played more than 90 snaps on MNF. Adding fuel to the fire, the Broncos are in turmoil due to the poor performance of QB Russell Wilson.
I expect the Jets to lean heavily on their rushing attack to control the game. Hall has been one of the hottest RBs over the past few weeks and as such has an ownership projection slightly less than 20%. We’re definitely in the chalk territory by playing Hall but his ownership projection is still outside of the top 3 in his position (see more below).
Cheap play of the week
Darren Waller was ruled out yesterday which will lead to increased usage for LV TE Foster Moreau (D$ 2,800). Moreau is not only a cheap TE option but also has an ownership projection of less than 10%. Further, Moreau’s teammate Josh Jacobs is the chalkiest play of the Week 7 mainslate and could steal touchdowns away from Jacobs.
Player to avoid
LV RB Josh Jacobs (D$ 6,500) has a very favorable matchup against a terrible Houston rush defense which is leading to a projected ownership of close to 40%. This is a very similar situation to last week where Rhamondre Stevenson and Eno Benjamin had great matchups, (relatively) low prices and projected ownership levels exceeding 35%. The former would have scored less than 20 points if it were not for a late short rushing TD; the latter couldn’t top 10 points against Seattle. I know the matchup against the Texans is juicy, but you can find less chalky matchups that provide similar upside such as Dameon Pierce and Breece Hall. The former player adds an additional layer to fading Jacobs as points scored by opposing RBs are typically negatively correlated.
ROSS JACOBS:
Favorite Stack:
I'm going to cheat this week and give you two stacks I like…
1) Herbert + Allen if he plays, otherwise DeAndre Carter and I recommend adding in another player for the double stack (your choice of Big Mike, Everett, and Ekeler) I particularly like the slot receiver, whether it's Allen or Carter, because Seattle has an atrocious pass defense but are particularly weak in the slot. Hard to go wrong here.
And 2) Dak + Lamb and your choice of second player. Gallup makes the most sense, but Brown, Ferguson, Elliott, or Pollard are also options. Again, Detroit just has an awful pass defense and everyone is sleeping on the Dallas offense a bit because it's been Rush at the helm. No longer. I expect the Cowboys to look much, much better this week.
Best value play:
The super obvious chalk is Josh Jacobs at $6500 but he's going to be 30-40% owned. Play him in cash but I recommend pivoting for tournaments. He may go off, but he doesn't help you when that many people are also playing him. Instead, I'll be playing a ton of Allen Lazard for $6100. I still think the Packers passing game is underrated and due for a big game, they are playing a bad Washington pass defense that's missing William Jackson, and with Cobb getting hurt, Lazard is the only trusted option left for Rodgers. His targets were already trending up every week and he has 4 TDs out of 5 games he's played this year. This feels like it could be a 7-130-2 game and finally establish Lazard's position as a WR1.
Best cheap play:
Alec Pierce. He gets a bad Titans pass defense at the perfect time. His snap count has been on the rise as have his targets (8/g the last two weeks). Did you know Matt Ryan is 2nd in passing yards behind only Josh Allen? It hasn't been super-efficient but Matt is putting the ball in the air a lot and projects to keep it up this week in an important division game with the Titans. Everything is set up for a big game for Pierce. Hard to do better than this for $4600.
