2022 New Hire NFL Head Coach Analysis #9: Lovie Smith
(same intro as prior coaching analysis reports)
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I need to address two things at the top, and I’ll probably copy and paste this into every intro ahead of the new hire coaching analysis for 2022…
1: Why are your (RC’s) famous coaching studies just now starting (July 2022)? You usually do them in Jan.-Feb.-Mar.?
I used to be excited to jump right on these studies but the longer I research and study the NFL, as it relates to Fantasy Football, the new head coach is not as big a factor as I thought it once was. I do some base research right away, when they are hired, to identify trends/patterns in their (and their staff’s) history on offense especially -- but a full research report, as I have done for years, I am arriving at a belief that it just isn’t as important as player scouting and study, so I put it off until I had the time to work on it…so, he we are.
It's a definite, purposeful lack of priority as to why I’m starting the deeper reports in the summer.
2: Why do I (RC) think the new head coaching hires are not as important as they once were?
After years and years of NFL study and observation, I’ve come to the most simple/obvious conclusion about a new (or any) NFL head coach importance to team wins/performance: Tell me who their quarterback is, and I’ll tell you how ‘good’ a coach they’re gonna be this season/ahead.
All my years of NFL observation, all I see is coaching failure and nonsense from the top (head coach)…out of touch philosophies, fighting with the GM, strange decisions for their starting lineups, and inability to manage a salary cap or construct a roster. Now, they do know how to do the ‘job’ of coaching…they know playbooks, weight rooms, stretching, dumb/cliché filled speeches, dress codes for road trips, practice schedules, blowing a whistle, coach speak press conferences, play calling from the playbook…they know how to perform the job of ‘coach’, but ‘difference makers’? Legends? Geniuses? Name one.
Ask yourself, if head coaches are so smart and such great communicators and understand the game so well…why are ex-quarterbacks getting tens of millions of dollars to analyze the game on TV, and not ex-NFL head coaches? Have you listened to the Bruce Arians, or Jeff Fisher, or Brian Billick, or any of the ex-coaches try and call a game…or even host a pregame show or something like it? Useless. Ex-quarterbacks in the booth are always natural and detailed and understand what they are seeing and can communicate it. Ex-head coaches…well, there’s Rex Ryan as a nonsensical sideshow on a dying media company’s pregame show. Steve Mariucci? Are you kidding me?
We all thought we had Bill Belichick to look up to, but then we saw how he handled the Tom Brady situation and how he wanted rid of Tom, and how he’s fared since Tom (and how Tom has fared without him). Who has been a better coach in the NFL? Bill Belichick or Bruce Arians? Answer = the one possessed Tom Brady, that’s who.
There are better coaches than others, for sure…but it’s more ‘least damaging to things’ is better than ‘very damaging to things’. They do know how to swing a whistle on a string around their finger and bark nonsense while the players stretch out pregame/practice.
In the end, this following statement is going to make you deny it…and then when you think about it, you’ll agree…and then it is sobering (for coaches): the location/geography, the weather, the stadium, the surrounding city, and the tax ramifications of that area/state are more important in attracting and keeping players than ‘head coach’.
A head coach has one main characteristic they MUST possess…don’t piss off the elite quarterback/you must befriend the elite quarterback.
Football fans are always so religious in their faith and defense of and promotion of their team’s new head coach -- it boggles my mind. People believe in a new hire head coach, likely a guy they may have never heard of before they entered the interview cycle/media cycle, with more rigor than church goers believe in God on Sundays. You can have hope in your new head coach for your favorite team, but these coaches are mere mortals, and most doomed-to-fail (and these adoring fans will turn on them within two years of their hire)…and many of these new head coaches were not the first or even third-fourth-fifth choices during the interview process, but when these coaches land on ‘your’ team then the making-them-into-a-god process by the media…and thus the sheep/fans go right along for the ride.
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How many current NFL head coaches have an overall winning record as an NFL head coach PLUS have taken a team to the Super Bowl?
Ten…and Lovie Smith is one of them.
What’s ‘experience’ worth in the head coaching game? Not a whole lot, apparently. Lovie Smith hasn’t been an NFL head coach since the 2015 season -- where after two seasons of a Tampa Bay debacle, post-his very successful stint as the Bears head coach for 9 seasons, he was fired. Fired in part because the Bucs had drafted the great, generational talent Jameis Winston and Lovie was blamed for Winston’s ‘struggles’ and was deemed unfit to coach such a great talent into the future.
That aged well…on Winston.
Prior to the Tampa Bay disaster (an 8-24 record), Lovie Smith went (81-63) in nine seasons with the Chicago Bears, five winning seasons, three division titles, and got to a Super Bowl with Rex Grossman. He was fired after a (10-6) 2012 season…but missed the playoffs despite the record, and he had run his course and was dumped.
Lovie took a year off and then was tapped by Tampa, and that failed miserably. Smith then went to head coach Illinois for five seasons, with five losing records, and was unceremoniously fired. He became the defensive coordinator for the Texans in 2021, under David Culley…who was fired after one season. It hasn’t been a great last decade of coaching for Lovie, at any stop/position.
Somewhat out of nowhere, Lovie Smith was hired to be the Texans next head coach in 2022. How did this happen? Is it a good thing?
It doesn’t much matter how Lovie Smith got to be head coach of the Texans…the reality is, he’s there now. At his intro press conference, Smith was peppered with media questions on the then top news story of the Brian Flores lawsuit. There was an underlying tone intimating that Smith was hired late in the process, kinda out of nowhere, due to a possible Texans panic over the then fervor over Flores’s lawsuit. And I wouldn’t dismiss that possibility -- that the Texans felt media and fan pressure on the entire situation. Smith, to his credit, took control of the situation (at his intro press conference) and handled about as well as one could…as did the Texans GM Nick Caserio, who impressed me at this event as well.
My short version/summary of this hiring event would be: Lovie Smith is an experienced NFL coach who has had success in the league, as a head coach…and he is as nice as can be, but you don’t want to mess with him…he has that vibe that’s tough to achieve -- he’s soft spoken and respectful, but he looks like he could beat you to a pulp if you tried anything on him. That’s not a bad vibe to have as a modern-day NFL head coach in charge of a ‘bunch of kids’ in a lot of cases.
Watching Lovie’s demeanor in press conferences and on the field mic’d up -- he genuinely connects with the players. Whether he’s a terrible coach, terrible assessor of talent, etc. -- at minimum he gains player’s trust, and they don’t tend to shine him on. Lovie doesn’t connect with people because it’s ‘a goal of his’ and ‘what good leaders do’. No, Lovie Smith is generally a nice guy but respected/feared at the same time. Whereas I watch Brian Daboll (new NYG head coach) and he constantly talks about connecting with the players and is seen always pushing himself onto the players with the ‘caring coach’ act…and the players kinda put up with it. Daboll forces it…Lovie is a natural, when it comes to connecting with humans, in my assessment.
Is Lovie Smith gonna be a good NFL head coach for Houston? I don’t know…who is his QB? (you knew I would get to it…).
Smith has Davis Mills, who I would argue might be the single best QB talent from the 2021 NFL Draft class (see my recent Davis Mills REWIND 5k+ word report on things)…so, Lovie has got a shot to succeed. However, the media, and thus the fans, think Mills is a nobody…so, if/when the Texans start losing…it will be the test for Lovie, of whether he knows QBs and will withstand the media pressure and keep developing Mills…or if he folds to the pressure. Smith doesn’t seem like one to succumb to the media, like most of the new/young coaches. There is hope here. But I don’t know if Lovie knows QB talent either…so there’s fear, too.
The GM Nick Caserio is showing some signs of being pretty good -- he pulled off a masterful deal moving Deshaun Watson. They are drafting talent later in drafts…and trying out smart UDFAs. They’re struggling in free agency…because the whole organization is under a dark cloud, not because Caserio can’t figure it out (Is my first theory).
If the GM is going to feed talent into their system, and if Smith is going to be an experienced, guiding hand that players respect, and if Davis Mills can be a top 15 NFL QB talent…you really got something here. At least, something better than the dregs of society they have been. If they can build a better O-Line, this team might be sneaky in 2023…and not-terrible in 2022.
Lovie Smith isn’t a sexy head coach hire. He’s not from the offensive side of the ball, as is all the rage today. There’s a lot to worry about here -- has ‘the game’ passed him by? Is he too defensive-minded? Are all his recent HC failures the reality of the situation/the reality of his coaching ability? However, there is hope -- he has a good young QB…he will turn the offense over to Pep Hamilton…he has a promising GM…he has experience and respect in the league with the players, media, and other coaches.
This could go either way. I think Lovie will get 2-3 years to show what he’s got. He might get lucky, and Davis Mills really blossoms and carries this whole organization…or Lovie might toil in mediocrity, not escaping the dark cloud of the franchise right now…and he gets run out.
As Mills goes, so goes Lovie…
Lovie Smith effect on Fantasy output…
Smith’s entire history has been one of bad/weak/mediocre offensive output…not only in the pros, but also in college. In Smith’s 11 seasons as an NFL head coach, he had ONE top 15 scoring offense (and ten bottom 15 ones). He’s been a ground and pound offensive mind…and not a great one at that. His college offenses were even worse than his pro-level ones.
However, if he turns this offense over to Pep Hamilton…Smith has a shot. Hamilton’s last four O-C/QB coach spots had him working with Andrew Luck, rookie Justin Herbert, rookie Davis Mills…with a one-year stop mixed in with Cleveland for a disaster year with Hue Jackson. Hamilton groomed Luck from college-to-the-pros. Hamilton’s resume is hopeful…filled with working with good young QBs and them having better seasons than anyone could have imagined in some cases. I think Pep is going to get a long leash to do his thing…and that could be Lovie’s masterstroke/saving grace.
If Pep is in charge, then Davis Mills continues to trend higher…the offense should be more balanced or goes where the strength is -- and that should be Mills/the passing game. It won’t be a record setting offense, but it won’t be a typical Lovie doldrum failure either.
If Lovie seizes control of the offensive mindset…then this will be a dull ground and pound effort that FF-disappoints. In reality, no one in FF-analysis really knows…we’re all just guessing. I think this offense will be mostly run by Pep Hamilton and ends up ‘balanced’ as an approach. But I can’t swear to it.
Lovie Smith doesn’t excite anyone in Fantasy, or with fans in general…Pep Hamilton doesn’t excite anyone in the media/with the fans…Davis Mills doesn’t excite any group you could name…the Houston Texans’ team don’t excite anyone…so, all Texans-based things are on FF-sale. I think there are some bargains, because I think this team will be better than people expect (which isn’t difficult since most people think they are the worst in the league) -- and if that’s the case, guys like Mills-Cooks-Pierce could be decent bargains.
Overall, on Lovie…on the Texans…on Fantasy-related Texans’ things…I’m neutral-hopeful/cautiously optimistic and not totally writing-off/laughing at them.
