2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Preseason Wk1 Game Analysis: Chiefs 19, 49'ers 16 (By Ross Jacobs)
--Welcome to the Trey Lance show (where everything's made up and the box score doesn't matter).
By now most everyone reading this will know that I've been hammering away at RC arguing the merits of Lance (5-14 for 128 yards, 1 TD/0 INT) both as a long-term elite prospect and his immediate fantasy value.
In his first game action we saw a lot of things. We saw a beautiful 80 yard TD throw off of playaction, perfectly dropped over coverage into a receivers arms. We saw some inaccurate throws. We saw some forced throws. We saw some throws where Lance was clearly predetermining his target. We saw some throws where Lance didn't see a guy in coverage and nearly turned the ball over. We saw Lance hold the ball too long at times and take unnecessary sacks. The only thing we didn't see was Lance running the ball. The final stat line looks pretty strange. If you didn't watch the game you'd assume he's a mad bomber and terribly inaccurate, but that isn't the case at all. I mention all of that to say...
This performance by Lance went almost exactly as I expected. Let me explain.
There are a lot of misunderstandings about the plan with Lance, so I want to clear some of that up. Everyone was excited to see the debut of Lance as a passer but more excited to see what he could do with his legs. During our pregame show I mentioned to RC that I didn't expect to see much, if any, running the first game. Why? Because Kyle is going to hide that part of their offense until Lance becomes the starter the same way he did with RGIII back in 2012. They ran a plain jane, vanilla offense to see how Trey handled it.
Next week they will break out just a little taste of the zone read package. Nothing exotic but enough to show that he can move. Once he becomes the full starter, whenever that is, they are going to break out a whole different offense like nothing we've seen before with the 49'ers. I expect a fusion of their typical stuff along with a Lamar Jackson-esque offense. There will be lots of running, motion, screens, and many more play action deep passes, all of it tailored to Lance's strengths. You cannot judge Lance's readiness by what he did against the Chiefs because that isn't the offense that he will be running. Once they prove that the run game is deadly he is going to have more room to pass and won't be forced to try and read complicated coverages and execute a complex passing game.
All that said, what he did during this game has much more to do with his long-term development.
Lance's first seven or so passes he looked like gold. His very first pass he looked for a deep bomb but it wasn't open, so he continued through his progression before finding Brandon Aiyuk on a crossing pattern. Lance stepped up in the pocket and fired a laser that bounced right off the normally sure-handed Aiyuk's hands. The next time on the field was with the second-team offense and he executed a bootleg off of playaction rolling to his left, reset his feet, and effortlessly flicked a perfect touch pass across his body over coverage to Trent Sherfield (1-80-1/1) who never broke stride and ran it the rest of the way in for a score. At this point everyone was ready to crown the new king. His potential and talent were obvious.
After Lance came back out with the second-team again the problems began. Now I'm going to talk about Lance's current flaws and some mistakes he made, but I want to be clear that this 2nd team offensive line he was working with is absolutely terrible and they were completely unable to block a very good Chiefs 2nd team defensive line. Lance was under constant duress the rest of the game and that absolutely played a part in his poor showing the rest of the game.
So what mistakes did he make and where does he need improvement?
Some of the issues RC raised with him coming out of North Dakota St manifested here. Lance is still developing his ability to read coverages. He is predetermining some throws and blindly flinging the pass. Despite typically being very accurate, he does have moments where his accuracy falters. I'm not overly concerned with that. He also is holding the ball too long and taking some unnecessary sacks, but again that's not a huge problem and he should get better at it with time. Some of it was simply that the line couldn't give him any time. These are problems and it's clear he's still got a ways to go before he can be considered anywhere near an elite NFL passer. But I believe he will get there for all the many reasons I've laid out before. I will repeat: there will be mistakes, bad mistakes, where he makes completely inexplicable decisions and fires stupid passes that get picked off. That is going to happen. It does not concern me though. This first year he will be running an offense tailored to his strengths and current abilities. Over the next 2-3-4 seasons I expect some of that to fade away and for him to develop into more of a prototypical NFL passer. How he handles that transition will determine his ceiling and how long he'll last in the NFL.
I've maintained all along that Lance is not a finished product. In fact, what has me so excited for him is precisely his inexperience. It's worth repeating. 4 years ago Lance started his one and only season for a run-dominant high school team. Two years later with no game experience in-between, he produced one of the all-time great seasons at the FCS level. Two years later he's on the cusp of starting for an NFL team, again with no game experience the previous two years. This is utterly unheard of, but the simple fact that he keeps making these jumps is grounds for excitement. He's succeeding in spite of everything seemingly working against him. He's barely played the position compared to Lawrence and Fields and all these Elite-11 trained QB's and yet he's already as good or better than all of them. He's good enough to play. We've seen it now, on the field, against a very good NFL defense. There are no more excuses from anyone saying we haven't seen him do it. Lance can play at this level. And he's got room to grow.
So the only question left is the timing of when he takes over for Garoppolo. I still believe it will be Week 1, but it's certainly not a lock. Garoppolo can take this team and run the offense well enough to win some games. As everyone saw tonight, he can take the safe checkdown passes and move his team down the field, but Lance provides the team far more options to attack with.
Who would you rather try to defend if you were the opposing defensive coordinator, not in the future but right now? Lance makes them so much more dangerous because he can do things Garoppolo can only dream of. The running threat and the deep-shot passes are what will take this offense to another level, and it's only a matter of time before Shanahan turns the keys over to his secret weapon. I think it's clear Lance gives them the best shot to win right now because of the dimensions he brings to the offense, but I understand and respect the arguments against it.
I don't know what decision Kyle will ultimately make, but my personal opinion is still that he is going to be aggressive and roll with the rookie. The original idea was to ride Garoppolo all the way to the Superbowl if he could carry you that far, but it's clear he will not be the QB by the end of the year, so why not get Lance as much experience as you can? We'll see what happens over the course of the next two weeks. Right now Lance is right on track to at least give himself a chance to start.
--Other people not named Trey Lance played in this game?
A couple of young 49'ers defenders played quite well. The one that stood out the most was rookie safety Talanoa Hufanga. He had a couple of really nice tackles coming downfield to wipe out Kansas City RB's and then added another two tackles on a kickoff and punt return. The 49'ers are already dealing with depth issues after injuries to some of their safeties so Hufanga might get some playing time soon.
Another player around the ball an awful lot was 2nd year linebacker Jonas Griffith. He's got good size and was moving around well, registering 4 tackles and a couple of pass breakups including a near interception.
Chiefs 2nd year DT Tershawn Wharton was giving the 49'ers backup offensive line fits. He's an undersized guy at 6'1” 280 lbs but looks strong and quick.
Rookie RB Trey Sermon (9-26-0, 2-14-0/2) had a forgettable night, but he had nowhere to run behind the 49'ers terrible backup offensive line. I'm not dinging him for that. Let's see what he can do with the starters.
JaMycal Hasty (10-63-1, 1-5-0/1) was the most explosive RB for the 49'ers which is something we saw a bit of last year. I thought he might not make the team, but at this rate he might make Wayne Gallman (6-21-0/1) expendable.
Jordan Matthews (1-16-0/1) was in the 2nd half after converting to TE. He looked pretty good even after bulking up. He's not a natural blocker but did well enough. He's behind Charlie Woerner (1-34-0/1) and Ross Dwelley though so I'm not sure he'll make the cut. Hope so. I'd love to see him get his career back on track.
A shocking statement to anyone but FFM'ers, Mecole Hardman (0-0-0/1) still can't catch. I thought perhaps he'd finally make a jump this year and take over as the #2 receivers for Kansas City, but it doesn't look like that's going to happen. Byron Pringle (2-10-1-2) is second best right now, but he's still probably not fantasy relevant.
Another receiver that can't catch is 49'er Richie James (0-0-0/2). He's probably not making this team after how poorly he played last night. Trent Sherfield (1-80-1/1) and Jauan Jennings (2-23-0, 1-26-0/1) are clearly just as explosive but much more sure-handed.
--Random Notes
Why the &#@!% are Patrick Mahomes, Tyreek Hill, and Travis Kelce playing in this game? What's the point? They don't need practice. They don't need to “get used to game conditions.” Tyreek even got a jet sweep carry. The Chiefs don't even give him that many of them during actual games! These guys are the best players at their positions in the entire league, and you are courting disaster by having them play this meaningless game. It's complete and utter lunacy.
Another thing that ticks me off: why is Chad Henne the backup QB for Mahomes? All the great QB's in this league and that's your idea of a backup plan in case Mahomes gets hurt again? I know he made a couple of good plays to keep your season alive in the playoffs last year, but surely you can do better? Why not toss the Jaguars a 5th round pick for Gardner Minshew?
-- by Ross Jacobs
