2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 4: Game Analysis: Eagles 25, 49ers 20
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
The two teams with the most injuries in the NFL this season played a game, and one of them…the one not playing their 2nd and 3rd-string QB won. The team playing their 1st-string QB beat the one that threw every pass to their tight end. No more, no less analysis needed here.
Let’s take a step back and look at the 49ers’ season so far…and it’s not good. Lost to Arizona, that as we are now finding out, isn’t that great of a team and thus is a bad loss. Beat the two New York teams…really, this gets us excited? Lost to previously no-win Philadelphia. The 49ers have played a collection of teams likely all to have a losing record this year, and three of them might be picking top 5 in the 2021 NFL Draft, they’re that bad…and the 49ers have two wins to show for it.
The 49ers’ injuries and schedule is about to swallow them up and spit them out…unless Kyle Shanahan pulls more miracles out, which is possible. Watch out for Miami to possibly upset them this week. We see the 49ers going 8-9 wins this year. Too many injuries, and no more NY matchups on the schedule to book more easy wins.
The Eagles ‘steal’ a win…they aren’t very good, and they just beat an overrated 49ers team. They have @PIT and BAL the next two weeks, then NYG at home Week 7 -- which means they are likely to be (2-4-1) heading into Week 8 hosting Dallas…probably, a game for the NFC East lead. Today, we project Philly around 6-7 wins this season…and 6-9-1 may win this division…I’m not joking.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Carson Wentz (18-28 for 193 yards, 1 TD/1 INT) got a job-saving win here. In fact, I’d say that this win…and the sad state of the NFC East…just bought Wentz and Doug Pederson jobs for the rest of 2020. Just from this one win.
Had Philly lost here, and it’s likely they will lose Weeks 5-6, they might have been (0-5-1) heading to play the Giants Week 7 and benching and firings would have been on the table strong. Now, a 1-4-1 record going into Week 7 hosting NYG will probably have them a half game out of 1st-place.
If Philly drops to (1-4-1) and then loses Week 7 hosting NYG…all hell will break loose. If they then lose Week 8 hosting Dallas to fall to (1-6-1) heading into a Week 9 BYE, expect a QB change and an axe to fall on Pederson. It’s unlikely they will lose four in-a-row, but not improbable.
If the Eagles are (3-4-1), after beating Dallas Week 8, they’ll likely be 1st-place and everyone’s jobs are safe the rest of the season. Even (2-5-1) will not be ‘out of it’.
Jalen Hurts (3-18-0) is likely in moth balls this season unless a Weeks 7-8 meltdown happens. Why the Eagles drafted Hurts, and with everyone watching rookie QBs explode around the league, but only has like one play a week for the ‘weapon’ Hurts is just a sign of the bigger problem here. There is no real/great plan. The Eagles stink on offense and have a corrupted O-Line and they can only think one interesting play a week for Hurts in a season/a game of desperation.
-- The best QB on the field in this game was SF 3rd-string relief QB C.J. Beathard (14-19 for 138 yards, 0 TD/0 INT). He came into the game like a whirlwind late and almost led the comeback win. He looked great but also it was against a soft prevent-ish Philly, gassed defense.
Everyone who was wondering if Nick Mullens was worth a 2nd-round pick to some NFL team to acquire…ummm, go watch this game. We are so enslaved to what happened the prior week with no context of it all -- Mullens wins two games over NYJ and NYG and the fanbase of 10 different NFL teams want THEIR team to go trade a high draft pick for the gift that is Nick Mullens. Now, Mullens isn’t even 2nd-string for his own team and no cares about him one bad game later.
-- Jerick McKinnon (14-54-1, 7-43-0/8) had another dull rushing effort as the lead dog…note that he played two top 10/strong run defenses the past two weeks (PHI and NYG).
This makes me wonder…do the 49ers really have a great run game?
Week 1 = Mostert led them with 15 carries for 3.7 ypc…his big moment on a short pass turned 80-yard TD.
Week 2 = Mostert had an 80-yard run and McKinnon a 55 yarder on the Jets…but it was the Jets. The two combined for 34 yards on 9 carries otherwise in that game.
Week 3 = The whole backfield combined for 35 carries for 93 yards rushing, 2.7 ypc.
Week 4 = McKinnon as lead dog, 14 carries for 54 yards, 3.9 ypc. It was a Brandon Aiyuk 38-yard run/leaping TD run that boosted their rushing tally…and that play was a hoax (I’ll get into it in a moment).
Maybe Raheem Mostert isn’t the best ‘buy low’ RB out there? Maybe he’s a hoax because of a long TD pass in broken coverage Week 1 and an opening game 80-yard rushing TD against the Jets starting a practice squad ILB who missed the play (among other things)?
After looking at this deeper, I’m putting the brakes on anything to do with the 49ers run game…I need to see more info. What I see so far, might be a bit of a fraud/hoax in our minds (remembering those long TD plays by Mostert is what sticks in our minds…it’s pretty dull otherwise).
-- Should we confidently start Deebo Samuel (1-10-0, 3-35-0/3) now? I guess. The schedule starts to get tougher, and the 49ers have all kinds of problems on defense…it should lead to a lot of passing ahead. Unless the 49ers do get it together and run-game all over teams. We haven’t had Jimmy G.-Deebo-Aiyuk-Mostert-Tevin-McKinnon all in the same place at the same time to know what this offense is going to do.
Deebo played just 34% of the snaps and got decent touches for his first game back. He looked fine, physically, speed-wise I thought.
-- Brandon Aiyuk (1-38-1, 2-18-0/5) scored that impressive, leaping TD…so now he’s a Hall of Famer too. But consider…
Aiyuk took that jet sweep and as he was about to get a nice 10+ yard gain, the pulling OL came out and dove into CB Darius Slay’s knee helmet first. Slay was in position to stop the play or turn it inside for others to tackle, but Slay took a wicked hit and just turned his back to the field and fell (in pain/couldn’t support himself) towards the sideline and Aiyuk just ran right through the abandoned space and he raced to the end zone for a highlight reel TD. It took a cheap block sending a defender to the ground with an injury at just the right time to make it happen.
If the block hadn’t opened the space…Aiyuk has a 10-15 yard run, a nothing fantasy day, and people are dropping him in some leagues. Instead, he’s now a star because of one play. Our eyes are dangerous things in fantasy.
As a receiver, in his three starts, Aiyuk is averaging 3.0 rec., 36.3 yards, 0.0 TDs…not necessarily FF gold. It’s the fact that he has run for two TDs that has everyone’s attention. Be careful. Sell high, potentially. Deebo back. Mostert back. Jimmy G. back. Kittle back. Is Aiyuk going to be the breakout star in a muted passing game with all them? He will be if he runs for a TD every week.
-- Who is Travis Fulgham (2-57-1/3). Former 6th-round pick of Detroit in 2019 that you don’t need to worry about.
I love that Cris Collinsworth is having an orgasm when Fulgham caught that 42-yard TD pass. How do the Eagles do it? Where did this guy come from? They’re having to do this with journeymen receivers, Al!!!
Yeah, how about the fact that the 49ers were using journeymen corners, 3rd-string and worse because of injuries. The only thing more injured than the Eagles WR corps is the 49ers defensive backfield.
-- Receiver numbers from this game:
18 rec., 193 yards, 1 TD = The Eagles entire team
17 rec., 155 yards, 0 TD = The 49ers entire team less George Kittle
15 rec., for 183 yards, 1 TD = George Kittle this game.
15 rec. for 157 yards, 0 TD = George Kittle’s last 4 games prior to this (3 of them being the playoffs last season)
If you faced Kittle this week…what can you do? You can’t control the schedule. If you faced him Week 3, you wouldn’t have -- he didn’t play. But you faced him Week 4 and got this in your face? How can you down yourself or your FF team if he made you lose?
-- Let’s add another line to the comparison above…
19 rec., 139 yards, 1 TD = Zach Ertz entire 2020 (4 games)
Note = The 49ers are terrific against the TE, thus part of Ertz’s (4-9-0/5) game here. Trouble for Mike Gesicki this week (5) and then issues for Tyler Higbee Week 6.
-- This SF-DST just got rolled over by a horrific Eagles offense that has no O-Line left. The 49ers have been beating up on the NY QBs prior. This 49ers-defense is in huge trouble ahead due to injuries and age and a weak D-C.
Weeks 6-13, you cannot use them with any confidence…or use them at all. If you got the SF-DST, you need to flip it/prepare for the crash coming. Week 5 v. Fitzpatrick is their last real chance for a long while/ROS.
Snap Counts of Interest:
67 = McKinnon
06 = J Wilson
64 = Aiyuk
50 = Bourne
37 = Tr Taylor
25 = Deebo
48 = M Sanders
09 = B Scott