2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 12: Bucs 38, Colts 31
I’m not sure what I just watched here.
Tom Brady had one of the worst games I’ve seen him have in a long time, at least in the 1st-half…he was under no real pressure, he had time and was looking over things, patting the ball as receivers ran routes, but then was just throwing passes right to defenders like they weren’t even there all 1st-quarter (and fortunately they dropped some of them). Like, I thought maybe Brady had like some eye issue or something. I’ve not seen anything like it from him this season.
Neither defense could really pressure the QB at first, but the coverage web was great, so the game devolved into a battle of checkdowns and turnovers…7 total turnovers…5 by Indy. If the Colts could hold onto the ball (3 lost fumbles) then they would have probably blown out the Bucs here. My main overview from this game: I could not tell that one team was better than the other.
If I had to pick a side, I’d say Indianapolis was the superior team…but Brady is so smart, and adjusts, and never gets frazzled, and he just kept TB in the game until the Colts shot themselves in the foot enough time for the Bucs to win in the end. It’s a shame, because the Colts were the better team for most of the game and would have cut their AFC South deficit to just one game, and they would’ve made that up and won the division in the end…now, it’s back to ‘time is running out’ for the Colts.
Indianapolis falls to (6-6) with a schedule problem looming. They should beat Houston Week 13 to get to (7-6), and then a Week 14 bye…and then a real Week 15-16 problem, facing arguably two of the 5 best teams in the NFL – NE and at ARI. If they lose those to fall to (7-8), they have to win out (LV, at JAX) just to get to 9 wins. They Colts are very hard pressed to get to 10 wins, much less 9. They have no great tiebreaker win against an obvious wild card team on the books…their playoff path is uphill, which is a shame because they are a good team.
Tampa Bay jumps to (8-3) and I don’t believe they are as good as ARI, GB, or fully healthy DAL in the NFC…but they have Tom Brady, and the other teams don’t, so you can’t bet against them. They need home field over Green Bay to get a repeat trip to the title game. Tampa/Tom will be just fine at ARI or DAL, in a dome…but Brady in Green Bay in January is a problem. TB should finish with 12-13-14 wins and have a good shot at the #1 seed but so much still to play out. 12 wins is an absolute given the TB schedule.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Tom Brady (25-34 for 226 yards, 1 TD/1 INT) 2021 splits…
12 TDs/7 INTs = Brady vs. teams one game under .500 or better (7 games)
16 TDs/1 INT = Brady vs. teams two games or worse under .500 (4 games)
Brady crushes the weak and is more human against the better teams/defenses. That’s why I believe The Bucs -11.0 at ATL is the best bet of the 2021 season. In those five games against the ‘weak’ this season, TB has won by 23, 28, 35, 20 points…including beating ATL by 23. Also, Atlanta may be the single worst team in the NFL.
-- Carson Wentz (27-44 for 306 yards, 3 TDs/2 INTs, 3-21-0) is a good but limited QB. However, the Colts run game and great O-Line is propelling Wentz to fringe QB1 status.
12 games played this season, 8 of them with 2 or more TD passes. 21 TDs/5 INTs this season for Wentz.
He FF-works in good matchups…and good matchups for him are ones where they are likely to be down and throwing more. He’s the Ryan Tannehill 2020 for FF 2021. Efficient, hiding behind the run game fear/plan to stop by the defense.
Weeks 15-16 v. NE and ARI is not good for him…
-- Does this Jack Doyle (6-81-1/7) thing have legs?
As I’ve been crowing about all week, since calling this Doyle pop ahead of last week – yes, I think it’s on the table.
It’s on the table for two reasons…
1) You can see the trend moving his direction…
1.6 rec. (2.6 targets), 17.5 yards, 0.00 TDs = Doyle (Wks 1-7)
3.0 rec. (4.3 targets), 33.0 yards, 0.60 TDs per game = Doyle (Wks 8-12)
4.0 rec. (5.7 targets), 47.3 yards, 0.33 TDs per game = Doyle (Wks 10-12)
Wentz is getting comfortable here. Doyle’s snap counts haven’t changed…his targets have, upward.
2) Tell me Doyle isn’t Wentz’s 2nd favorite receiver/target now?
Jonathan Taylor is the focal point of the offense; this we all know. But when they throw the ball, everything is to Michael Pittman…defenses have figured that out and now double and triple Pittman at times. If Wentz has to throw downfield, and Pittman is doubled and Taylor is shadowed…it’s Doyle, Hilton, or Pascal. It used to be Pascal, but now it’s shifting to more Doyle. Pascal has 4 catches for 21 yards…total…the past 3 games.
Mo Alie-Cox was getting a push prior as well. His snap counts haven’t changed either, but his targets have – 3.2 targets per game Weeks 1-8, 1.5 targets per game Weeks 9-12. Alie-Cox has 3 catches for 42 yards…total…his past 5 games.
Doyle is Wentz’s Zach Ertz…developing.
It’s not set in stone. It could shift. Doyle could have a dud v. HOU this week because it’s a blowout and they rotate more guys, but I really believe…like I mentioned last week…something is brewing here. A 3-5 catch, 30-50 yards, shot at a TD every week kinda thing.
-- I still have full belief in Michael Pittman (4-53-0/10) as one of the best WRs in the NFL in 2021. He’s working like an elite. In Dynasty, I would use this down period of his (no TDs in three straight games…GASP). It’s not BUY at any cost…it’s buy LOWer/as a WR2.
The three WRs that get the most attention from defenses, that I see in 2021, so I’ll take some cues from that as to their quality: Tyreek Hill, Michael Pittman, and Big Mike Williams. One of them is accepted by the universe as a top dog. The other two you can buy as WR2s, but they are showing WR1 abilities…dominant ones.
-- Leonard Fournette (17-100-3, 7-31-1/8) scored 4 TDs here, and as with most multi-TD games…a lot of circumstances had to fall the right way. Failed other attempts right before the player getting his short TD shot (the James Conner story).
When you’re the main RB for the best offenses in football…good FF things usually fall your way. Not an absolute, but an advantage (the James Conner story).
I didn’t think Fournette would be the clear, main guy here at the start of the season – so, a big miss I tried to warn/get us into around Weeks 3-4-5. If you did, it paid off here. His prior 3 games…no TDs.
He rushed for 100 yards here…the first time he’s done so in 2021.
-- If you ignore the Week 8 game that Gronk (7-123-0/10) tried to come back from his injury and last 6 plays and then left for more weeks, in his other five games in 2021 season he’s averaging: 5.8 rec. (7.4 targets), 75.6 yards, and 0.80 TDs per game…12.4 non-PPR, 18.2 PPR PPG, which is the CLEAR #1 FF PPG scoring TD in Fantasy.
-- I expected Mike Evans (3-16-0/6) to have a big game here, like usual…nothing radical about that call. However, he did not have said big game.
You know why? Xavier Rhodes (5 tackles, 1 PD) is starting to ramp up again. He’s getting healthier and back to his good+ ways. If he comes on and stays healthy – it makes this Indy unit a top 10 type NFL defense threat.
-- Since Week 2, Antoine Winfield (7 tackles, 1 PD) is the #4t IDP PPG scorer among DBs, a blink away from #3.
Snap Counts of Interest:
42 = Doyle
39 = Alie-Cox
09 = Granson
54 = Fournette
12 = RoJo
01 = Gio
